Wind Chill Advisory 8, NWS Topeka, KS

134 
WWUS43 KTOP 301554
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014


KSZ008-009-020-301700-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WC.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-141230T1600Z/
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-CLOUD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CONCORDIA
954 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CST THIS MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY COLD TODAY...HOWEVER WIND CHILL VALUES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
530 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 338 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

A weak shortwave trough was filling as it lifts northeast across
eastern KS. The longer wave length trough extending from the upper
Midwest southwest into the southwestern US will begin to shear out
with a closed upper low forming across southern NV. Most of the the
mid level ascent will shift northeast across the upper MS river
valley and Great Lakes states. The light snow and flurries across
the CWA was due in part to weak isentropic lift at the 270 theta
level.

The light snow across the southwest counties may accumulate a
dusting with some areas up to a half inch through the early to mid
morning hours. Stronger CAA will cause the low-level to dry bringing
an end to the flurries from northeast to southwest across the CWA
through the mid and late morning hours. The flurries may linger into
the afternoon hours across the western counties as weak isentropic
lift continues. Low-level CAA will continue to bring a much colder
airmass, located across the northern and central plains, southward
across the CWA through the day. Temperatures north of I-80, across
eastern NE were in the 1 to 8 below zero range at 200 AM this
morning. Temperatures this morning will drop to around 5 degrees
across republic, Washington and cloud counties. North winds will
continue to be 10 to 15 MPH with higher gusts. There may be a few
hours from 6 AM through 10 AM where wind chill indices may flirt
with 15 degree below zero mark across Republic, Washington and Cloud
counties. Most areas across northeast and north central KS will see
wind chill indices in the 8 to 13 below zero range this morning.
Wind chill indices across east central KS will range from zero to 5
below zero this morning.

The cloud cover will begin to break up from northeast to southwest
across the CWA during the mid morning hours and into the late
afternoon hours across the southwest counties of the CWA. Highs will
struggle to reach around 10 degrees across north central KS with
most area only reaching the teens.

Tonight, skies will become mostly clear across northeast KS where
low may dip just below zero along the NE border. A few more mid
clouds may keep temperatures just above zero across the western
counties of the CWA. temperatures will drop into the mid to upper
single digits across east central KS. Winds will drop below 5 MPH
during the mid and late evening hours, thus wind chill indices will
remain in the 5 to 12 degree below zero range through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

Tomorrow the surface high pressure pushes into the southern plains
allowing westerly flow to become established. This will warm
temperatures by a few degrees, but still below normal with highs in
the upper 10s and lower 20s. Towards the end of the week highs reach
the 30s and lows reach the 20s. The next storm system will sit
and spin over the southwest US for a few days before ejecting into
the plains. Ahead of that system temperatures continue to rise as
southerly flow increases. With this system cut off from the main
flow it does not appear to be particularly strong. A weak surface
inflection tracks south of the area, which will keep the surface
winds easterly. This will help to maintain a sub freezing surface
layer at night as the shortwave progresses across the region
Friday night. There is still model disagreement regarding the
strength and track of the shortwave. This will play big role on
how far north precip will occur in northeast KS. At the moment all
the models do depict a warm nose spreading northward into the
area. Therefore have introduced the possibility of sleet and
possibly freezing rain in far east central KS where temperatures
may be warm enough for complete melting. Given the progressive
nature of this system do not expect a prolonged period of icing.
The only area that seems to avoid the warm nose for now is north
central KS where chances for any precip are already low. Another
concern for Saturday will be how warm the surface will get during
the day time hours. With highs in the mid to upper 30s Saturday
have added a mention of a mixture of rain. Behind the departing
system northwest flow aloft becomes dominate keeping the area dry
and with seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire period.  Ceilings
have begun to lift this morning from MVFR to VFR, and are expected
to continue to improve throughout the period.  North winds will
remain around 12-15KT throughout the day until 06Z tomorrow when
they begin to taper off.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-311000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
349 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH THE COLDEST READINGS NEAR
THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO NEAR 15 BELOW ZERO ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIX OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST
UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.