Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Topeka, KS

106 
WWUS43 KTOP 062107
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
307 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014

KSZ009>012-021>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059-071500-
/O.CON.KTOP.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140107T1500Z/
WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CLAY CENTER...
MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
307 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

* IMPACTS...FROST BITE TO EXPOSED SKIN CAN OCCUR IN A MATTER OF 
  MINUTES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE COULD LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR EVEN 
  DEATH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXPOSED SKIN CAN SUFFER FROM FROSTBITE IN A VERY SHORT TIME...SO
DRESS ADEQUATELY. BE SURE TO WEAR LAYERED CLOTHING...A HAT...AND
GLOVES TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE DANGERS OF FROSTBITE.

&&

$$

673 
WWUS43 KTOP 071323
WSWTOP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
723 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014


KSZ009>012-021>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059-071430-
/O.CAN.KTOP.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140107T1500Z/
WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLAY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-GEARY-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARYSVILLE...HIAWATHA...CLAY CENTER...
MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY...TOPEKA...LAWRENCE...EMPORIA...OTTAWA
723 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS BEEN CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY.

WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE GENERALLY RISEN INTO THE RANGE OF ZERO TO 
10 BELOW ZERO. THESE INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THEREFORE...THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

09Z water vapor imagery continues to show a long wave trough from
lake Superior to the lower MS river valley, with upper level ridging
along the west coast. At the surface an arctic high pressure system
has pushed through the southern plains and out into the gulf of
Mexico with its 1039MB center over central OK.

The weather should be dry for today and tonight since there is
little moisture in the air. Additionally there is little in the way
of forcing on the back side of the upper trough progged to affect
the forecast area. While we will be dealing with the cold surface
ridge of high pressure today, models show modest warm air advection in
the low levels now that the center of the ridge is south of the
area. They also indicate the boundary layer will mix to around
900MB. Therefore today's forecast highs are based on mixing the GFS
900MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would give us a 15 to
20 degree diurnal change today, which may be on the conservative
side if we keep sunny skies all day and mix a little deeper. Have
trended lows tonight slightly "warmer" since all the models show a
southerly surface wind developing with continued warm air advection
overnight. There may even be some mid level clouds move in after
midnight hampering radiational cooling a touch. Would not be
surprised if the min temp was set early in the evening with temps
gradually rising towards sunrise Tuesday.

Will not make any changes to the wind chill warning as this
morning's lows in the -5 to -10 degree range appear to be on track.
There was some discussion as to whether an advisory might be needed
when the warning expires, especially overnight tonight. Based on
afternoon temps between 5 and 15 degrees, wind chill readings are
progged to warm above -15F for most areas. Then winds become
relatively light overnight with temps trending slightly warmer. So
there is a chance that much of the area will not reach advisory
criteria of -15. With this in mind, decided to let the warning play
out as it is and the day shift can look at wind chill values
overnight again.

Wolters

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

After one final morning of polar air affecting the region,
temperatures will be on the rebound as surface flow backs to the
south in advance of a developing trough across eastern Colorado.
Sunny skies and increasing warm advection from the west will
commence the snow melt with highs in the 30s to upper 20 for the far
northeast areas. Clouds increase Tuesday evening in advance of
another cold front and accompanying mid level wave advancing
southeast. Tuesday night lows are not nearly as cold, but still
winter-like with readings in the teens. As this wave phases with a
stronger short wave trough from the south, chances for precipitation
break out across much of the southern Plains. Forcing is primarily
weak over east central Kansas and focused within the mid levels.
Being on the northwest edge of the precip, drier air advecting into
the column may develop freezing drizzle temporarily on Wednesday
afternoon before transitioning to light snow Wednesday evening.
Accumulations are minimal at this time with perhaps a dusting at
best.

Precipitation clears the area on Thursday as clouds begin to clear
between systems. Mid level flow backs towards the west as a closed
upper trough digs as it enters the Baja California coast. A series
of shortwave troughs from the northwest are ejected ahead of the
main wave bringing an unsettled setup for the next few days. The first
progressive wave impacts the area Friday afternoon. Once again, the
bulk of the moisture strays to the south and east with light amounts
of QPF possible on the back side of the system. Slight chances for a
rain and snow mix are possible for east central areas mainly during
the afternoon hours, clearing most of the area during the evening.
Temperatures quickly warm Thursday as gusty southerly winds advect
upper 30s to near 40 degree readings into the area. The above
mentioned upper closed low is shifted into Mexico while another
shortwave trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. Models are
indicating this wave may impact the area by the end of the week and
will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise, ridging in place with
sunny skies allows for much warmer temperatures heading into the
weekend. Highs in the 40s (or possibly even warmer according to some
guidance) with overnight lows in the 20s provides a much needed
break from the extreme cold and snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

For the 18z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Breezy northwest winds will persist through the afternoon hours
before weakening by this evening. As surface high pressure shifts
east of the area tonight into Tuesday, winds will back toward the
west and southwest by Tuesday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST today FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
451 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
451 AM CST MON JAN 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL READINGS THIS MORNING FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER 12 PM. THE WIND CHILL WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THIS TIME. WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STRUGGLE AROUND 10 TO 17 BELOW ZERO AS NORTHERLY WINDS
GUST TO NEAR 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY MORNING RANGE FROM 11 TO 18 BELOW ZERO
BEFORE QUICKLY RECOVERING ABOVE ZERO BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LITTLE TO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.