Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
647 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

08Z water vapor imagery showed the mid level ridge has deamplified
over the central plains and a disorganized shortwave was moving
across NEB. Another better defined shortwave was moving east across
southern Canada. At the surface, an area of low pressure was
analyzed over northwestern KS and southwestern NEB with a warm front
extending from central NEB into extreme northeast KS.

For today and tonight, models are in reasonable agreement that the
disorganized energy aloft will drift over northeast KS. With an
uncapped airmass and decent moisture (PWs increase to near 2")
available for precip, think scattered to numerous showers and storms
may develop within the heat of the day and persist into tonight as
the weak vorticity slowly drifts east southeast. There doesn't
appear to be a strong surface feature to focus convection, however
models develop an inverted trough axis across northeast KS by this
afternoon. This appears to be the best location for lift and
forcing, albeit weak, and have the highest POPs across northeast KS
by the late afternoon and evening. Models show some modest
instability developing today for surface based storms. There may
also be enough deep layer shear around 25KT for some pulse storms.
With a strong inverted V signal in the forecast soundings, the main
concern could be strong gusty winds with some hail possible too.
Highs today could be a little tricky depending on cloud cover. But
progs of 850 temps continue to support highs in the upper 90s across
central KS where there could be more insolation. Have highs in the
upper 80s for far northeast KS thinking thicker cloud cover and more
moisture within the boundary layer may inhibit heating a little
more.

Think precip chances will gradually trend down after midnight
tonight as the modest mid level trough and associated forcing
propagates east southeast. Lows are expected to range from the upper
60s across north central KS to the lower 70s in east central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

The long term period remains quite unsettled with only minor
changes from the previous forecast issuance. In the wake of the
departing trough Thursday night, expect dry conditions, but
another short wave trough will be quick to move out of the eastern
Rockies with a convective complex developing in western KS and
perhaps moving into north central KS by early Friday morning. Have
gone with chance POPs during the day on Friday despite the incoming
convective complex as it looks like it will lose steam as it moves
into eastern KS but could still see scattered thunderstorms. Also,
if it is more organized as it moves into the area, could see the
complex move all the way across the forecast area given the
compact upper trough moving overhead. This system should reinforce
a front just south of the forecast area, keeping cooler
temperatures locally with highs in the lower 80s, and also keeping
forcing for additional thunderstorms displaced south of the
forecast area for Friday night.

The location of this front will play a role in the forecast for
the remainder of the weekend as another well timed (by the model
guidance) trough is forecast to approach northeast KS by Sunday
morning. Expect areas just north of the surface front to see
another fairly organized convective complex late Saturday night as
the low level jet and isentropic flow increases over the front.
This may persist into the day on Sunday with some widespread
decent rainfall possible in the axis near and just northeast of
the cold front. The best chance for this currently seems to be in
the southwest half of the forecast area but confidence in
location is fairly low at this time.

Upper ridging becomes a bit stronger by Monday into next week so
it seems fairly likely that drier conditions will build into the
area along with a bit warmer temperatures in the low 90s with lows
still around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

Scattered TSRA will continue near the terminals through 08Z, then
gradually decrease. Have gone with a tempo group from 00Z-03Z with
forcing from the upper wave and numerous outflow boundaries
focusing convection. A frontal boundary will shift the winds to
the northwest and north around 10 kts in the 11Z to 15Z time
period. Area of MVFR stratus expected after 13Z then becoming VFR
after 20Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-072115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
401 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND
PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN
EASTERN KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
APPEAR TO BE ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ054-070115-
LYON-
740 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 815 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 20 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF LYON COUNTY.

MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 139 AND 154
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 9622 3873 9628 3874 9618 3874 9595
      3855 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 257DEG 16KT 3866 9614

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
746 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E OLPE                38.26N 96.06W
08/06/2014                   LYON               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN BETWEEN ROAD 70 AND
            ROAD 100...6 TO 8 MILES EAST OF OLPE. 12INCH LIMBS WERE
            FROM DEAD TREES. OLD BARN HAD 2 TIN ROOF PANELS BLOWN
            OFF. SLIDING DOORS OPPOSITE OPEN END OF BARN BLOWN OFF.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ054-070115-
LYON-
749 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 815 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OLPE AND
HARTFORD.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3830 9636 3834 9595 3826 9595
      3826 9596 3817 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 260DEG 28KT 3823 9625

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
802 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VALLEY FALLS            39.34N 95.46W
08/06/2014  M2.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY JEFFERSON COUNTY DISPATCH

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
803 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTONVILLE             39.42N 95.33W
08/06/2014  M3.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED BY JEFFERSON COUNTY DISPATCH

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
813 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ054-070130-
LYON-
813 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTY...

THROUGH 830 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LYON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AROUND 55 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NEOSHO RAPIDS AND HARTFORD.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 9620 3843 9595 3837 9595 3825 9596
      3825 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 249DEG 27KT 3835 9606