Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 AM CDT Mon May 12 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

Please refer to recent SPC outlooks and mesoscale discussions, as
well as any local NWS Topeka update and mesoscale discussions (will
appear at top of the AFD's).

At 2 PM, Surface low pressure in north central KS near KHYS was
building northeast. A dry line extended from just east of KPHG to
near KRSL and back southwest to near KDDC. A well-developed warm
front extended from a triple point just east of KPHG to just north
of Hebron to Beatrice to just north of Falls City in southern
Nebraska. Finally, a weak remnant outflow boundary extended roughly
along and just north of the Kansas River...just north of Salina to
Manhattan to Topeka. The atmosphere is moderately to strongly
unstable in the warm sector and the cap forecast to weaken by mid
afternoon just east of the triple point and dry line. Expect storms
to develop and quickly take on supercell structure as they move east
northeast. Initially, most of these storms should focus a bit closer
to the warm front and may stay just north of the forecast area, but
based on some deeper cumulus developing south of the triple point on
the dry line feel that storms could move into the highway 81
corridor in Kansas by 5 PM. These storms would likely be severe with
very large hail and some damaging wind the primary threats, but the
tornado potential is expected to steadily increase as storms become
more organized and low level shear increases into the evening. The
primary uncertainty in tornado...and overall severe...potential this
evening is in how much the storms will interact with each other. If
they remain more isolated in nature, the tornado and severe
potential will be markedly higher. However, if they congeal into
line segments or bow echoes, then we would transition to more of a
damaging wind threat with some potential for embedded circulations.

High res model guidance then suggests that another area of
thunderstorm development over SW Kansas will organize and move east
Northeast into parts of the area from Salina and Abilene over toward
Manhattan and Council Grove. There is some model consistency in
these cells remaining at least somewhat isolated and supercellular
as they move into the forecast area...and it also appears that they
will continue to have a quality fetch of inflow air rich with
moisture and helicity. So, watching this region as a secondary area
for potentially enhanced severe weather and tornado threat by mid to
late evening.

It seems that the cap strengthens a bit after midnight and expect a
gradual weakening trend in storm coverage and intensity, but this is
quite uncertain, and the continued intensification of low level wind
shear in conjunction with ongoing storms and the presence of
moderate instability lends at least some potential for continued
damaging wind threat, along with low end hail and tornado potential.
Will have to see how it all plays out because there is also some
potential that if the cap sufficiently strengthens it could cut off
precip almost entirely in the southeast 1/4 of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

By tomorrow morning the front will still be progressing through the
forecast area as the main mid level trough axis lifts out of the
Rockies. Overnight thunderstorms will limit the surface
destabilization along the front even though instability will still
be present. Also strong warm air advection keeps a mid level capping
inversion in place which may also limit thunderstorm development.
Low level winds will veer ahead of the front, while the better deep
layer shear resides further west. Showers will be likely along, and
behind the front across the eastern half of the forecast area
through the early afternoon. At this point the severe potential
remains low and likely further east into MO. Cold air advection
behind the front will cool the lower levels and remove any
instability. High temperatures will occur in the morning only to
slowly decrease through out the day. Little to no changes made to
the extended forecast. As the southern stream energy lifts through
the southern plains strong cyclogenesis and TROWAL development takes
place over MO. This precip could clip the far southeast counties of
the forecast area on Wednesday. In the wake of the departing mid
level trough return flow brings additional precip chances later in
the week. Through mid week the highs remain in the 60s while the
lows stay in the 40s until a slight warming trend as a mid level
ridge builds over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

Convection will linger through 09z across the TAF sites before
weakening before another round of convection/showers with mvfr
cigs develops by 14z. This area of precip will end aft 18z west to
east across the terminals as cigs improve to vfr as the cold front
moves through with a windshift to the west/northwest in the 18z-
20z timeframe.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-130345-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1033 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL PRIMARILY APPLY TO AREAS EAST OF AN ABILENE TO
MARYSVILLE LINE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER 3 AM...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE IN THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY
MORNING...COMING TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
136 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             5 NW MOONLIGHT          39.05N 97.17W
05/12/2014  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

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