Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Line of storms has been producing wind gusts between 60 and 80
MPH. All the short term guidance continues to bring the linear MCS
across the forecast area through the morning. With the NAM and RAP
showing little convective inhibition ahead of the frontal boundary
(CNK is still in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s),
think there is threat for damaging straight line winds.

UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

The tornado threat appears to have diminished across Republic and
Cloud counties due to the discrete storms lifting into NEB.
However the overall threat for severe storms still remains
overnight from the storms in northwest KS that are producing
damaging straight line winds. After collaborating with media and
EM partners, we felt it was better to go ahead and cancel the
tornado watch now while storms are still a couple hours away. Then
we'll deal with the northwest KS convection as it gets closer.

The latest RAP and NAM forecasts show surface based CIN remaining
near zero along and just ahead of the frontal boundary with some
instability and increasing deep layer shear. Because of this we
are anticipating that the damaging wind threat could persist
through the early morning hours as the storms move east.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

The main focus for the short term is on the potential for strong to
severe storms to develop late tonight through the overnight hours.

Water vapor imagery showed the mid-level low centered over Montana,
with the trough continuing to dig southward across the Rockies as it
pivots eastward. Models show this mid-level low remaining fairly
stationary into Sunday morning with the trough pivoting eastward
into the High Plains late tonight. This advancing trough will help
to push the area of low pressure currently situated over western
Kansas further east across the region. The combination of the
associated cold front and an embedded shortwave that models show
developing over northwest KS and tracking into southeast NE should
help to support the development of thunderstorms late tonight
through the overnight hours. Latest short range models show the
potential for a few discrete supercells developing near the
strengthening dryline and advancing cold front over northwest Kansas
and tracking northeastward into southern Kansas. These discrete
storms may barely clip far north central Kansas early this evening.
With the cap steadily weakening across that region, MUCAPE values
reaching into the 2500-3500 J/kg range, and steep lapse rates in the
mid-levels, these storms would likely be severe. However, it's worth
noting that this area of instability is not co-located with the best
shear (which is further west), but still would expect 0-6km bulk
shear values of 30kts to possibly 40kts. The primary severe threats
over far north central Kansas would be large hail and damaging
winds, however with decent low-level helicities in place, cannot
rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two in that
region.

As the embedded shortwave catches up with the cold front late
tonight, models have been suggesting that a QLCS may develop over
western/central Kansas and track eastward through the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Models are in fairly good agreement in
having the cold front move into north central Kansas by 05z-06z and
along a line stretching from Hiawatha to Topeka by around 12z. Most
of the precipitation should be focused along and behind the front,
however could see some scattered storms develop ahead of the front
along any outflow boundaries. This line of storms is progged to
enter into far north central KS between 04z-06z and gradually
progress eastward through the overnight hours. While these storms
should weaken some as they track eastward, there still looks to be
enough instability and shear to support some severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. The main concern through the
overnight period will be the potential for damaging straight line
winds as a very strong southwesterly low-level jet (60-70kts at
850MB) develops over central KS by 06z. Even though this low-level
jet will weaken some as it moves east, 0-6km bulk shear should be
upwards of 40-50kts.

By Sunday morning, this activity should be focused across far
northeast and east central Kansas. Models show the cold front
tracking just south of the forecast area by late morning, but it may
stall out over southeast KS and southern Missouri through the day.
As a result, could see additional shower and thunderstorm
development along this boundary extend as far north as into east
central Kansas.  With 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6km
bulk shear, any storms that were to develop over east central KS
could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds
possible.

As for temperatures, increased cloud cover tonight will keep
temperatures warmer across eastern KS (into the upper 60s/near 70
degrees), but may cool into the lower 60s over north central KS
after the storms track to the east. Highs for Sunday should reach
into the low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

By Sunday evening the cold front that pushes through the area will
stall out over SE KS as the mid/upper low lifts northeast into
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm develop is possible along this
boundary in far SE KS during the evening hours. Overnight the front
lifts northward as the return flow becomes established and low level
moisture increases. Precip chances appear to linger into Monday
morning until clearing out in the afternoon. High temps warm
into the low to mid 90s with the arrival of southwest flow and
warmer 850 MB temps. The dewpoints will also remain high and low
temps struggle to drop below the mid 70s on Monday night. Tuesday
should be mostly dry with high temps again in the low to mid 90s.

On Wednesday a strong mid/upper level trough digs into the central
Rockies, and as it approaches the models are suggesting a possible
lead short wave that would cause showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. Although there is model disagreement on
the exact track and timing of these weak disturbances. On Wednesday
night the main trough lifts into the plains causing more widespread
precip across the region. A cold front is forecast to pass through
the area sometime on Thursday and or Friday therefore keeping the
chance for showers and thunderstorms around. The models do disagree
on if the trough that lifts out stays together as one piece of
energy or there is more phasing. This will play a role in the speed
of the front as well as if a surface low occludes and slowly drifts
through the northern plains and upper Midwest. Temps later in the
week will be regulated by the increased precip chances and possible
cloud cover. High temps generally stay in the 80s with lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

Have made some minor timing adjustments to when convection should
impact the terminals. Otherwise the forecast seems to be on track.
There is the potential for brief IFR conditions as the convection
moves through.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-160400-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THIS LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO REPUBLIC...CLOUD AND OTTAWA
COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EAST AND EXIT ANDERSON COUNTY AROUND 7AM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE LARGE HAIL WITH THE STORMS. RAINFALL COULD
BRIEFLY BE HEAVY, BUT THE DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT ENOUGH
THAT CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE MONDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1205 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 AM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NW REPUBLIC           39.99N 97.92W
06/14/2014                   REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 TO 7 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     COURTLAND               39.78N 97.89W
06/15/2014  E70 MPH          REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     TSTM WND GST     BELLEVILLE              39.82N 97.63W
06/15/2014  E60 MPH          REPUBLIC           KS   STORM CHASER

            POWER LINES DOWNED. LAW ENFOREMENT REPORTED POWER WAS OUT
            IN BELLEVILLE.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1218 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     CONCORDIA AIRPORT       39.55N 97.65W
06/15/2014  M67 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CONCORDIA               39.57N 97.66W
06/15/2014                   CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWNED IN THE CITY.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ENE ADA               39.17N 97.82W
06/15/2014  E65 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS