Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Topeka, KS

698 
WWUS53 KTOP 020136
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
836 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSC027-041-061-127-149-161-197-020200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140602T0200Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-MORRIS-CLAY-DICKINSON-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
836 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WABAUNSEE...
GEARY...NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY...NORTHERN
MORRIS...SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHERN RILEY COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM CDT...

AT 833 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM RILEY TO GRANDVIEW PLAZA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DWIGHT TO LATIMER...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 830 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS 
ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS 10 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION CITY. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...ALMA...WAMEGO...WHITE CITY...OGDEN...PARKERVILLE...
KEATS...DWIGHT...ALTA VISTA...VOLLAND...ST. GEORGE...MCFARLAND...
LOUISVILLE...PAXICO AND BELVUE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 285 AND 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3929 9622 3896 9604 3878 9617 3875 9701
      3894 9706 3928 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 272DEG 36KT 3927 9682 3900 9670
          3889 9667 3873 9678

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BOWEN

007 
WWUS53 KTOP 020147
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
847 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSC027-041-020156-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140602T0200Z/
CLAY-DICKINSON-
847 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3894 9679 3928 9690 3929 9622 3896 9604
      3878 9617 3876 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 272DEG 36KT 3927 9668 3899 9656
          3888 9653 3873 9664

$$

KSC061-127-149-161-197-020200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140602T0200Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-MORRIS-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
847 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WABAUNSEE...
EASTERN GEARY...NORTHERN MORRIS...SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND
SOUTHERN RILEY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 843 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KEATS TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OGDEN TO DWIGHT TO
PARKERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED 68 MPH 
WINDS 2 NNE JUNCTION CITY AT 840 PM.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...ALMA...WAMEGO...ALTA VISTA...VOLLAND...ST. GEORGE...
MCFARLAND...LOUISVILLE...PAXICO AND BELVUE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 298 AND 338.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9679 3928 9690 3929 9622 3896 9604
      3878 9617 3876 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 272DEG 36KT 3927 9668 3899 9656
          3888 9653 3873 9664

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

349 
WWUS53 KTOP 020202
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSC061-127-149-161-197-020212-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-140602T0200Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-MORRIS-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WABAUNSEE...EASTERN GEARY...
NORTHERN MORRIS...SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHERN RILEY
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3894 9679 3928 9690 3929 9622 3896 9604
      3878 9617 3876 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 272DEG 36KT 3927 9667 3899 9655
          3888 9652 3873 9663

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

Cluster of thunderstorms has developed across north central Kansas
into Southern Nebraska, in part enhanced by the next piece of energy
approaching with the shortwave trof, as well as an increasing upper
jet. Daytime heating in western portions of our forecast area have
boosted CAPE values into the 2000+ J/kg range and model soundings
indicate 1000J/kg of available downdraft cape as well. Lapse rates
in this zone are also steep and supportive of large hail.  Watch has
been issued for western counties through the evening hours.

As low level jet increases and veers to the east with time, expect
what initially starts out as isolated severe storms to congeal into
line segments and propagate eastward with time.  Instability values
diminish somewhat in the east with time, and with LLJ peaking at
around 40 kts and then slowly diminishing and veering with time,
think greater chance for severe storms will be mainly along and NW
of the turnpike through late this evening. Expect developing
convection on our western border near Cloud county would speed up
with time, and be on the KS/MO border around or shortly after
midnight. Watch may need to be extended eastward if line can
maintain as the jet veers and moves into slightly less instability.
PW values are favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding
could be a concern.  Main severe concerns are for damaging wind
gusts and hail initially, with an isolated tornado threat as the
storms remain discrete, transitioning to wind and rain threat as it
moves eastward this evening.

Carried chance diminishing to slight chance pops for after midnight
into Monday morning. Showers and storms may linger near the front as
it stalls across the southern counties Monday afternoon and keep a
slight chance there.  Cool outflow should hold highs in the lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

While the overall weather pattern remains unsettled through next
weekend, main focus of the forecast was the severe weather potential
on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Existing frontal boundary meanders southward Monday evening. Weak
convergence along the boundary with lack of a strong LLJ and upper
lift warranted a slight chance near the boundary across main east
central Kansas through the morning. Surface to mid level southerly
flow quickly increases in response to a potent upper trough progged
to track eastward across the northern plains. The attendant surface
low across western KS lifts the warm front back northward towards
the KS and NE border. Latest guidance has the boundary focused in
this area by late afternoon where SFC based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG. The bulk of the convection centers along and north of the
front. 0-6 KM bulk shear is quite strong between 65 and 70 kts
supporting supercell structures capable of damaging winds and large
hail. Tornado potential is of concern for convection that develops
on the boundary as backed sfc winds up to 1 KM are near 25 to 30
kts. Have increased chances for storms to likely for the northern
tier of counties near the Nebraska border. Maintained chances
further south in the warm sector for possible convection in the
afternoon. Sfc CAPE ranges from 2000 to 2500 J/KG with a weakening
capping inversion through the day. In terms of afternoon temps,
strength of the warm advection from the south pushes h85 temps
between 23 and 26C. For this reason increased highs into the lower
and middle 90s.

The upper trough exits eastward Wednesday with clearing skies and
precipitation from west to east during the afternoon. Westerly flow
aloft brings another shortwave trof through on Thursday with best
precip chances along and south of interstate 70 where the frontal
boundary resides over southern Kansas. This trend continues through
Friday evening with weak waves traversing through the region. While
not a complete washout for the weekend, a slow moving, progressive
trough tracks eastward across the plains, bringing rounds of
thunderstorms to the area. Best chances appear to be on Saturday and
Saturday evening. With the warm front shunted to our south Wednesday
onward, highs settle down near 80 degrees with overnight lows in the
low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the 00z TAFs, tracking a line of showers and thunderstorms that
will be moving toward the TAF sites this evening. These storms may
be accompanied by MVFR cigs and visibilities possibly dropping down
to IFR conditions at times as heavy rain will be likely. Gusty winds
will be possible with this line of storms with gusts of at least
35kts possible. Latest short-range models have these storms tracking
east of the TAF sites by late this evening/early overnight hours
with not much in the way of trailing stratiform precipitation, but
may have MVFR cigs lingering through the morning hours. Winds will
shift to the west and northwest behind these storms and gradually
back toward the southwest by Monday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
432 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-020945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
432 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY ON MONDAY IN
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THESE STORMS MAY BRING ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

THERE WILL THEN BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSZ021-022-020100-
CLAY-RILEY-
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY AND NORTHERN
CLAY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN RILEY AND NORTHERN CLAY
COUNTIES. STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CLAY CENTER...GREEN...LEONARDVILLE...
RILEY AND RANDOLPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3926 9678 3935 9734 3956 9725 3957 9690
      3957 9671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 278DEG 37KT 3945 9721

PHILLIPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S MINNEAPOLIS         39.08N 97.71W
06/01/2014  E50 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED

&&

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
752 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BENNINGTON          38.99N 97.59W
06/01/2014                   OTTAWA             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            4 TO 8 INCH DIAMETER TREES...UP TO 30 FEET IN
            LENGTH...DOWN AND CLOSING KANSAS HIGHWAY 18 SOUTH OF
            BENNINGTON.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
803 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

KSZ022-023-020130-
POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
803 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RILEY AND WESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 830 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL RILEY AND WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WESTMORELAND...BLAINE
AND WHEATON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9631 3941 9627 3924 9633 3928 9686
      3954 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 274DEG 40KT 3943 9667

PHILLIPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
805 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND GST     ABILENE AIRPORT         38.90N 97.24W
06/01/2014  M78 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   AWOS

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
806 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WSW SOLOMON             38.92N 97.37W
06/01/2014                   DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 3 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

HENNECKE