Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Topeka, KS

750 
WWUS53 KTOP 110014
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSC087-110024-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-140511T0015Z/
JEFFERSON-
714 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 715 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3912 9518 3904 9519 3921 9553 3943 9532
      3942 9518 3942 9517 3913 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 219DEG 35KT 3939 9504

$$

SANDERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
643 PM CDT Sat May 10 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Current surface analysis at 17Z depicts a trough which extends from
southeast NE into a broad area of low pressure in central KS. Low
level moisture has been spreading northward into southeast KS this
morning with low to mid 60 dew points reaching the I-35 corridor. A
dry line will begin to mix eastward as the surface trough pushes
into northeast KS. South to southeast surface winds will converge on
the advancing trough/dry line later this afternoon over east central
KS. Steep mid level lapse rates over the region have allowed surface
CAPE to reach around 2000 to 3000 j/kg. This instability will
coincide with 40 to 50kt of effective bulk shear. Therefore the
environment will be favorable for supercells capable of very large
hail. A slightly clockwise curved hodograph would suggest right
moving cells would be favored, although a left mover could not be
ruled out. The high res models have been aggressive with the
eastward progression of the deep mixing and westerly winds, which
should reach the turnpike once the surface heating eliminates the
cap. There has also been consistent thunderstorm development
around 18 to 20Z southwest of Emporia stretching into the Topeka
and Marysville along the low level convergence zone in advance of
the low pressure. Once these storms develop they should move to
the northeast along I-35/70 into far northeast and east central
KS. Forecast soundings suggest mixing up to about 5kft in the near
storm environment, which would suggest the possibility of enhanced
downdrafts into damaging winds. There is some small potential for
a tornado, mainly south of I-35, where LCLs are a bit lower.
Around 00Z as the thunderstorms move into MO a more well defined
warm front lifts through the forecast area, which would stretch
back into western KS. Convergence along and over the front may
cause additional thunderstorm development during the evening hours
especially as the low level jet increases. Elevated instability
and persistent strong deep layer will promote overnight
thunderstorms capable of large hail. The bulk of this overnight
convection should be north of I-70 where the better convergence
will be located.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night

Please refer to SPC Day 2 severe weather outlook for broader aspects
of this period. Will try to provide some local details herein.

By mid morning, expect all elevated thunderstorms to have moved
north out of the Nebraska border with warm air and a cap around 850
HPa. Also expect substantial moisture transport under this cap,
bringing surface dewpoints into the upper 60s and perhaps
approaching 70. This will also likely bring a layer of stratus
below the cap. Expect this stratus to be thickest in eastern KS,
but should at least scatter out by early afternoon, and perhaps
clear out completely over north central KS by mid afternoon.
Thus expect ample heating while the frontal boundary sets up on a
SSW to NNE axis in central KS, likely near the HWY 81 corridor.
Storms will develop in earnest by mid (perhaps early?) afternoon
along this front and will rapidly become severe. Given the
expected frontal orientation and the cap in place, expect that
some of these storms through early evening may have success in
remaining somewhat isolated and then having a storm motion off of
the frontal boundary and into the warm sector. This seems to be
most favored across northern KS. These storms would be capable of
very large hail. Fairly large, looped hodographs also suggest a
tornado threat as storms become well organized, although at least
in the afternoon, the warm temperatures may limit that potential
somewhat as LCL's may be too high for enhanced tornado potential.
Regardless...the threat is there.

Over time into the evening, expect storms to continue to develop
along the frontal boundary but should begin to congeal more and more
into line segments perhaps with embedded supercells. This is where
the forecast gets a bit more tricky. Deep layer shear remains
impressive, and low level shear strengthens significantly in the
evening as the LLJ intensifies across the region. Should the
atmosphere remain quite unstable through the night...and feel that
it will...could see supercell structures persist well after dark and
perhaps into the early morning hours. Model sounding suggest that
they will become slightly elevated, but with such a shallow
inversion that it can not be trusted. Current thoughts are that the
tornado potential will increase early evening as the LLJ begins to
increase, and by late evening may continue to increase but only if
supercell structures can be maintained. The bottom line is to expect
these storms to be intense across the local forecast area,
especially north of the Kansas Turnpike through mid evening but
possibly across the entire area into the early morning hours. In
addition, heavy rainfall will be a possibility along with some
training of storms, and while much of the area is quite dry there
is some potential for flash flooding.

Monday - Monday Night
Most indications suggest that the front will clear east of the local
forecast area by noon on Monday, although the general trend
continues to be toward a slower eastward progression. Ahead of the
front, there will remain some instability although widespread
convection should limit any severe potential. Showers will continue
to wrap around on the back side of the system as well but the most
widespread showers will be farther northwest over Nebraska. Expect
dry air to move in and most precip to clear out of the entire area
by Monday evening.

Tuesday - Saturday
Little to no change has been made to the current forecast given the
impending severe weather threat in the near term. There remains some
model uncertainty in how the upper low will react as new energy
drops into the back side of the trough... possibly resulting in a
slower eastward progression of the main trough and potentially
keeping some rain chances around for Wednesday. Still generally
expect cooler conditions with some weak energy possibly bringing
shower chances to the area roughly in the Thurs/Thurs night time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

Thunderstorms will exit the KFOE/KTOP terminals around 01z but the
potential is there for them to reform again aft 03z but should
move out of the area by around 06z-09z timeframe. Outside of
thunderstorms...remainder of the fcst expected to be dry...but
mvfr stratus should move into the terminals after 11z. Winds
are expected to remainder southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
236 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM
MARYSVILLE TO COUNCIL GROVE AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. A TORNADO
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 35. WHILE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS BY
EARLY EVENING...SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH
HAIL UP THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SOME OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE...WITH UP TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
70 MPH...A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE
MAIN HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             TECUMSEH                39.05N 95.58W
05/10/2014  E2.75 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             1 NE TECUMSEH           39.06N 95.57W
05/10/2014  E2.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE FORBES FIELD       39.00N 95.62W
05/10/2014                   SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF 2 INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 60 MPH.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W FORBES FIELD        38.96N 95.71W
05/10/2014                   SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

            2 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             7 ESE MERIDEN           39.15N 95.45W
05/10/2014  E2.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             3 SW OSKALOOSA          39.18N 95.35W
05/10/2014  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             6 ENE TOPEKA            39.08N 95.57W
05/10/2014  E1.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   PUBLIC

&&

WOLTERS