Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Topeka, KS

298 
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSC003-030000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140403T0000Z/
ANDERSON-
630 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 627 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLONY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT...LONE ELM AND KINCAID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9507 3804 9507 3803 9508 3804 9552
      3809 9552 3837 9517 3827 9506 3826 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 228DEG 23KT 3807 9535

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

880 
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSC003-030000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140403T0000Z/
ANDERSON-
642 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE ELM...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A SECOND STORM WAS NEAR GARNETT MOVING 
NORTH AT 25 MPH. 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARNETT AND KINCAID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9507 3804 9507 3804 9541 3823 9534
      3837 9517 3827 9506 3826 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 228DEG 23KT 3812 9528

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

985 
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSC003-030000-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140403T0000Z/
ANDERSON-
648 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 646 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE ELM...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINCAID.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9532 3811 9528 3824 9507 3804 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 249DEG 23KT 3807 9523

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Main focus for the short term is on the timing and tracking of
showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system advances into
the forecast area. As of 20z, the center of the surface low was over
northeast New Mexico with a fairly stationary warm front located
just south of the KS/OK border. A very notable dryline was situated
across far western Oklahoma where dewpoints ranged from 9F at Gage,
OK to 59F near Canute, OK, with the triple point located just
northeast of Gage, OK. While the entire forecast area has been
blanketed by a low, dense stratus deck all day, cloud cover has been
gradually diminishing across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas
this afternoon. As a result, temperatures as of 20z across southern
Kansas had warmed up into the low/mid 70s just north of the warm
front while locations in the warm sector across Oklahoma had
temperatures into the low/mid 80s with breezy southerly winds.
Across the forecast area, the cloud cover has greatly limited the
diurnal heating with readings in the low/mid 40s over northern
Kansas and into the mid/upper 50s across east central Kansas.

Visible satellite imagery shows that the cloud cover should start
diminishing over east central Kansas by mid to late afternoon, which
will likely result in a late-day warm-up of temperatures into the
low/mid 60s across that area. Models show this warm front slowly
lifting northward into southeast Kansas late this afternoon/early
this evening and into east central Kansas by late tonight. With
increasing instability from the clearing skies, short-range models
show some scattered convection likely beginning to develop near the
OK/KS between 20z-22z where there was roughly 2500-3500 J/kg of
surface-based CAPE and generally 50-60kts of effective shear. As the
boundary slowly lifts northward, we may start seeing this scattered
convection initiate across the far southeastern portions of the
forecast area between 6-8pm. Depending upon how far north this
boundary tracks, there is the potential for some of this convection
to become surface-based with strong to severe thunderstorms likely.
The primary threats with this activity over the far SE corner of the
forecast area will be large hail and damaging winds, but cannot rule
out the potential for an isolated tornado. The last few runs of the
HRRR/RAP have shown another line of thunderstorms initiating further
north near I-70 between 01z-03z tonight and lifting northward
through the evening and overnight hours. This activity is probably
going to initiate off of an elevated boundary near 850mb and be
supported by good isentropic lift in the 295k-305k layer. Expect any
thunderstorms that develop near this boundary aloft to remain
elevated, so the primary threat would be large hail (and possibly
some stronger winds) with the strongest storms. The threat for
severe thunderstorms looks to diminish by late tonight/early
overnight with these evening thunderstorms expected primarily across
the eastern half of the forecast area. However, models show
isentropic lift ramping up overnight across central Kansas which
should support additional shower and thunderstorm development across
north central Kansas overnight. This activity should continue to
spread across northern Kansas through the day on Thursday as the surface low
lifts northeastward into eastern Kansas. This low is progged to
track east of the area by Thursday night with a dry slot likely
developing across portions of central and east central Kansas,
diminishing the potential for additional precipitation during the
afternoon hours over that area. With the associated cold front
quickly progressing east of the area late Thursday afternoon, models
are suggesting that the initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms
along this boundary should hold off until it moves into Missouri.
While a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon
along this boundary across far eastern Kansas, the potential at this
time seems low.

As for temperatures, the continued cloud cover will limit
radiational cooling tonight with lows likely only dropping into the
low/mid 40s over north central Kansas to the mid/upper 50s across
far east central Kansas. With the passage of the cold front on
Thursday, far eastern Kansas should remain in the warm sector with
southerly flow for much of the day, boosting temperatures into the
mid/upper 60s to low 70s, while across north central Kansas
northwesterly winds behind the front will become breezy with
temperatures decreasing during the afternoon and highs only getting
into the upper 40s/low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Thursday night, the upper level trough across central NE extending
southward into the TX PNHDL will lift northeast across the eastern
plains into the Upper Midwest by late 12Z FRI.

A fairly broad dry slot will lift northeast across much of the CWA
during the evening hours. North central KS may see the southeast
portion of the TROWAL, on the west side of the upper trough, move
northeast during the evening hours. The light rain may mix with
or even change over to light snow before ending during the evening
hours of Thursday within the TROWAL region of north central KS.
The remainder of the CWA may see sprinkles or light showers
through the evening hours. Once the H5 trough axis shifts
northeast of the CWA stronger isentropic downglide will begin to
clear skies from southwest to northeast across the CWA towards
sunrise.

Friday, will be a cooler day as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds southward across the central plains. Highs will only reach the
lower to mid 50s. Skies will become mostly sunny and the north
winds of 15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 25 to 30 MPH will diminish
through the late afternoon hours.

Friday night and Saturday, The surface ridge will move east into the
east central conus. Southerly winds will warm high temperatures on
Saturday into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday through Monday. An upper level trough will move east across
the southwestern US into the southern plains. The deeper gulf
moisture will only reach southern and central OK before 850 winds
veer more to the southwest, which will cause the deeper gulf
moisture to advect farther east of the CWA across AR into the
central MS river valley. There will be enough ascent for isolated to
scattered showers through the period, though the stronger ascent
will be located across TX and OK.

Monday night through Tuesday Night, a longer wave-length upper level
trough will develop along the mid and lower MS river valley. Minor
H5 troughs will dig southeast across the plains during the period.
There may be occasional showers or sprinkles through the period.
Cloud cover and northerly surface winds will keep highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s and nighttime lows will only drop into the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday, the upper level trough across the central and lower MS
river valley will shift east as an upper level ridge across the
western conus expands east. Skies will become mostly sunny as
surface winds shift to the south. Highs will warm into the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

For the 18z TAFs, IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail for much of
the period as a dense stratus deck is expected to remain over the
TAF sites. Areas of drizzle will continue through much of the
afternoon with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to
develop by early to mid evening. However, there is still uncertainty
in the probably of this thunderstorm development near the TAF sites,
let alone timing, so have continued with the mention of VCTS at this
time. Model soundings are in fairly good agreement in cigs/vis
continuing to deteriorate overnight into Thursday morning with the
potential for these thunderstorms to be in the area. In fact, could
see conditions drop to VLIFR for a few hours Thursday morning as fog
may develop. Conditions should gradually improve by mid to late
morning as scattered precipitation lifts north of the TAF sites,
however still expect IFR conditions by the end of the period. Winds
are a bit tricky as the surface low will lift northward into the
area Thursday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-032045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
334 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AT GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR INTERSTATE 70 BY MID
EVENING AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING.