Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Topeka, KS

089 
WWUS53 KTOP 090536
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

KSC085-090545-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-141009T0545Z/
JACKSON-
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1234 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITING...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  

&&

LAT...LON 3952 9567 3965 9571 3965 9556 3951 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 251DEG 19KT 3960 9561

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

Increasing confidence in locally heavy precipitation for northeast
and east central Kansas tonight. Latest surface analysis shows the
warm front extending eastward across northern Oklahoma from a low
pressure in the Texas Panhandle. South of the front dew points were
in the mid to upper 60s while north of the front across eastern
Kansas dew points ranged from the mid 40s to lower 60s.

Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas
this evening with a focus for locally heavy rainfall across
northeast Kansas especially after 05Z. Low level jet is forecast to
increase into the 35 to 40 kt range this evening and transport high
theta-e air northward. Precipitable water values increase to between
1.5 and 1.9 inches this evening and continue through the night,
which is above normal for October. Expect heavy rainfall to focus
across northeast Kansas then shift eastward into Missouri as the low
level jet veers through the night. Convergence in the nose of the
low level jet will likely lead to training storms as moisture is
transported northward. Could see a few locals with amounts of upper
to 3 inches. Also the right entrance region of the upper jet will
increase divergence and increase ascent over northeast Kansas. Will
hold off for now on a flood watch as flash flood guidance is running
around 2.6-3 inches. CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg are forecast along with
shear of 35 to 40 kts is forecast and may lead to a few severe
storms overnight with hail the main hazard.

Remnants of Simon along with embedded waves will move across Kansas
on Thursday. The above coupled with lift over the frontal boundary
along the Oklahoma border will lead to convection continuing through
the day, however there may be a lull in the late morning hours
before picking up again.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

The main focus for the extended period is on the active, wet pattern
that will set up over the region. By Thursday night, a mid-level
trough will be in place across the Great Lakes region and the
northeastern U.S. with a fairly zonal southwest-to-northeast flow
over much of the central to southeastern U.S. This flow will remain
in place through the end of the week and into the early part of the
weekend as surface high pressure looks to be anchored over the
Northern Plains with surface low pressure to the south and an
associated stationary boundary stretching just south of the
Kansas/Oklahoma border and extending eastward along the
Missouri/Arkansas border. The models are in good agreement that,
with a southwesterly low and mid-level jet, a decent convergence
zone will be present in the vicinity of this boundary. However,
uncertainty lies with how far north this boundary may lift into east
central Kansas, which will affect the best area for precipitation.
Model soundings do show a deep moisture profile in place over the
region Thursday night into Friday with PWAT values upwards of 1.0 to
1.5 inches. With this expected prolonged period of steady rain,
locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be
possible. As a result, have continued to increase PoPs across the
entire cwa, with the best chances looking to be in east central
Kansas (closest to that moisture convergence zone along the stationary
boundary). A few elevated thunderstorms may linger through this
period but should diminish to mostly showers by Friday. With
widespread precipitation and overcast skies expected, have trended
temperatures down a few degrees with highs in the mid 50s on Friday
and lows in the 40s Friday night.

Friday night into Saturday, a mid-level trough will advance
southward from Canada into the Northern Rockies, helping to push the
area of surface high pressure southward into the area and thus,
shifting the stationary boundary further south of the forecast area.
As a result, expect precipitation to be diminishing from northwest
to southeast with much of the area dry Saturday and Saturday night.
However, this dry period will be short-lived as the advancing and
deepening mid-level trough will push an area of low pressure and
associated cold front eastward into the area Sunday and Sunday
night, which will bring another round of showers to the cwa. There
are still model discrepancies with the exact timing of this frontal
passage, but at this time the additional precipitation looks to move
in on Sunday and exit from west to east on Monday. Models are in good
agreement with a broad area of surface high pressure spreading
across the western half of the U.S. behind this front with dry
conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday.  As for temperatures,
expect a gradual moderating trend with highs into the 60s by Sunday
and into the 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

Still anticipate convection to break out near taf sites near
03-06Z, and have added a tempo group at TOP/FOE to account for
this. Areas of showers and thunder continue along the front
through the day, with another round turning with the low level jet
near sunrise once again near TOP/FOE. Will keep TSRA as prevailing
condition with frontal boundary stalled over the area, although
may see a few breaks in the morning and early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-092045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
BEFORE 8 PM.

AFTER 8 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
LARGER THAN QUARTERS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BECOME
LIKELY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOPEKA AND LAWRENCE
NORTHEAST TO HIAWATHA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE
MAIN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
THURSDAY. DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT PLEASE
REPORT ANY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.