Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Topeka, KS

567 
WWUS53 KTOP 202110
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSC197-202130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140920T2130Z/
WABAUNSEE-
410 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WABAUNSEE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 410 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAXICO...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCFARLAND AND PAXICO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 329 AND 340.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9623 3911 9629 3917 9614 3914 9609
      3907 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 334DEG 17KT 3909 9620

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

WOYNICK

334 
WWUS53 KTOP 202125
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
425 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSC197-202135-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140920T2130Z/
WABAUNSEE-
425 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. 

LAT...LON 3900 9623 3911 9629 3917 9614 3914 9609
      3907 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 334DEG 17KT 3903 9616

$$

WOYNICK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Main focus for the short term is on the development of thunderstorms
as a cold front progresses southward through the forecast area.
Water vapor imagery showed a broad trough across the northern U.S.
with an embedded shortwave trough skimming across northeast Kansas.
This passing wave has been helping to push the cold front southward
into the area, with the boundary stretching from roughly Minneapolis
to Randolph and Hiawatha. Scattered thunderstorms had developed
along this boundary across northeast Kansas by early afternoon,
however the very pulse-y nature of these storms suggests that the
best forcing is limited to just near the boundary. While there are
still plenty of variances amongst the short-range models with the
progression of this system, in general they seem to trend toward
more scattered thunderstorms developing along and north of I-70
(i.e., along the cold front) between 20z-00z as little to no
inhibition is in place. With 2000-3000J/kg of surface-based CAPE and
generally 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear, some of these storms could
be strong to severe mid-afternoon through early this evening,
especially across far northeast and east central Kansas, with small
hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall being the primary
threats.  Some limiting factors though to this severe potential are
that the steep low-level lapse rates only extend up to around 800mb
and there also is a fairly narrow zone of convergence with limited
frontogenetical forcing near this boundary. Model soundings show the cap
building back into the region around or shortly after sunset, so any
storms across east central Kansas early this evening will likely
become elevated and gradually weaken and diminish in coverage
through the evening hours. While these storms should mostly be south
of the forecast area by late evening, cannot rule out a few
lingering storms into the overnight hours before clearing out.

With winds veering to the north behind the front, cooler air will
start advecting into the region with overnight low temperatures
ranging from the mid/upper 50s north to the low/mid 60s over east
central Kansas. This CAA will persist through the day with highs
only reaching into the mid/upper 70s, despite mostly sunny skies.
Dry conditions are expected through the day on Sunday as surface
high pressure comes spilling southward into the region behind the
exiting system.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Will maintain mostly clear/mostly sunny skies Sunday night into Monday
beneath and eastward expanding upper level ridging ahead of the
approaching intermountain west trough. With light winds and good
radiational cooling...a pleasantly cool early Fall night in the
upper 40s to lower 50s still looks on track. With the cool start to
the day...light southeast winds and a very slow increase in clouds
late in the day...will keep highs in the middle 70s..although
stronger mixing and more veered llvl winds could lead to a little
warmer temps.

As the western trough moves eastward into the plains...then lifts
northeastward in response to amplifying eastern ridge...moisture
advection and forcing will overspread the county warning area from
west to east from late Monday night on into Tuesday night.
Precipitation chances will then be highest across the western 2/3 of
the county warning area Tuesday night into Wednesday before
decreasing as the upper trough begins to shear and weaken. Will then
go with a dry fcst for Friday on into next Saturday as upper ridge
becomes dominant across the central plains. The thicker clouds and
higher precip chances still appear will limit highs Tuesday and
Wednesday across the northern cwa to the low to middle 70s...with
highs then moderating to around 80 by Friday then continuing on into
Saturday. Lows will commonly be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Isolated to scattered storms are expected to develop between 20Z and
24Z moving along a frontal boundary pushing SE through the area.
Storms may produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.
Confidence is high on development but lower on timing of initiation and
location of formation.  After sunset, any lingering storms should
weaken and dissipate before skies begin to clear and winds become
northerly.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
338 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PROGRESSING SOUTH OF
I-70 LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PULSE UP AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SMALL HAIL...SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSZ012-201730-
BROWN-
1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY...

THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DIME SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SAC AND FOX INDIAN
RESERVATION AND ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST BROWN COUNTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 9534 3997 9554 4000 9560 4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 293DEG 22KT 4003 9550

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSZ011-201745-
NEMAHA-
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTY...

THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BERN
AND SENECA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 9589 3979 9609 3997 9624 4000 9624
      4000 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 317DEG 30KT 4003 9619

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSZ011-012-201815-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
1247 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEMAHA AND WEST CENTRAL BROWN
COUNTIES...

THROUGH 115 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEMAHA AND WEST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE WOODLAWN AND FAIRVIEW.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 9563 3964 9588 3987 9613 3999 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 313DEG 34KT 3985 9595

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KSZ011-012-202000-
BROWN-NEMAHA-
220 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NEMAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES...

THROUGH 300 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEMAHA AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE WOODLAWN...WETMORE AND
KICKAPOO RESERVATION.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 9595 3975 9561 3965 9572 3965 9579
      3959 9579 3979 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 308DEG 23KT 3984 9600

WOYNICK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
229 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SENECA              39.82N 96.06W
09/20/2014                   NEMAHA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED AT LEAST 1 POWER POLES BROKEN
            WITH SEVERAL LEANING OVER DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WIND
            DAMAGE.

&&

BDRAKE