Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Topeka, KS

373 
WWUS53 KTOP 250055
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
755 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSC143-250115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140825T0115Z/
OTTAWA-
755 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
OTTAWA COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MINNEAPOLIS...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 745 PM, A STORM CHASER 
REPORTED WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED 4 MILES NORTH 
NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS. THE WIND GUST ALMOST BLEW A SEMI TRUCK 
OVER. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9768 3930 9739 3930 9737 3911 9737
      3912 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 211DEG 17KT 3919 9763

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

392 
WWUS53 KTOP 250111
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSC143-250121-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140825T0115Z/
OTTAWA-
811 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3931 9768 3930 9739 3930 9737 3911 9737
      3912 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 211DEG 17KT 3926 9758

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

On Sunday afternoon, a nearly stationary front extended from just
south of Dodge City to just south of Concordia to near Beatrice NE.
While winds south of the front were oriented mainly parallel to the
front, there was some broad low-level convergence along the
boundary, particularly in the zone from near Salina NNE to Beatrice
where persistent but shallow convective clouds have been developing
since noon. Adjusting model soundings for current conditions suggest
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with cloud bases around 10K feet and
40 degree F dewpoint depressions on the hot side of the front. Wind
shear is weak, and the main question in forecasting thunderstorms is
whether a somewhat dry mid-level airmass will inhibit deep updrafts.
A weak short wave, barely evident in 700 hPa wind profiles over SC
Kansas may be enough of a forcing mechanism to initiate scattered
storms, and the HRRR/RAP guidance has been persistent in doing so. A
bit hesitant to put too much faith in this guidance due to the
over-mixing of the boundary layer but it does seem to be a
reasonable solution. If storms are able to develop, the best
coverage would likely be between 4 PM and 7 PM, and the strongest
updrafts would have a good chance to produce localized damaging
downbursts...especially with any downdrafts falling into the very
hot airmass. If storms develop, would also expect this activity to
mainly be confined to areas east of Concordia and west of Topeka.

The weather pattern is essentially stagnant locally, and expect
similar conditions tonight into Monday as what occurred Sat night
into today. A low level jet overnight will focus most of its lift
north of the area but may support a few non-severe storms in
northern KS after midnight through around sunrise. There is a small
chance that this activity could persist into the day on Monday, but
expect a gradual decrease in coverage during the morning (assuming
storms are ongoing at sunrise). The front will then remain located
in the vicinity of far northern Kansas and may provide another weak
focus for late afternoon storms on Monday. Temperatures south of the
front will be similar to today, although perhaps a degree cooler
while dewpoints may hold in the mid-60s east to upper 50s in central
KS. The heat advisory will continue through Tuesday for the 8th
consecutive day (for much of the area) with heat index values
greater than 100.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

By Monday night the front will bisect north central and northeast KS
as the strong upper low lifts through southern Canada. Thunderstorms
are possible along and north of that front during the overnight
hours especially in NE. This front will lift north during the day
Tuesday, although progress could be complicated by any outflow
boundary moving south into the area. Additional thunderstorms are
possible along any potential outflows as well as the front trying to
lift northward. Cape during the day could reach 2000 j/kg, and this
combined with a deep mixed layer may lead to gusty thunderstorm
winds. Organized severe convection will be limited due to the lack
of deep layer shear, which remains north of the area. On Tuesday
night with the front somewhere near the NE/KS state line elevated
storms will develop north of the front overnight on the nose of the
low level jet. On Wednesday the upper level trough over the central
Rockies slowly progresses eastward while the front stalls out
across the northern forecast area. On Wednesday night as the
trough ejects the Rockies a decent low level jet develops again
focusing another round of nocturnal thunderstorms north of the
front. The models now disagree on the exact track of the cut off
low as the GFS moves it over the southern plains. The ECMWF is
further north tracking the low over the forecast area, therefore
leading to a difference in front timing. As opposed to yesterdays
thinking the chances for precip could linger into the weekend.
Temperatures again are forecast to be hot on Tuesday although this
could be complicated by possible convection. The slower frontal
passage could mean the southern portion of the forecast area could
remain hot on Wednesday. After that the temperatures go back to
near normal especially with the possible widespread rain as the
upper low tracks nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

South to southwest winds will gust to 20 kts at times this
afternoon. Expect an area of scattered TS to develop somewhere
near MHK around 21Z and persist to around 01Z, but with low
confidence regarding exact location. Nearby storms have a good
chance of producing localized strong winds from variable
directions. This activity would have a very small chance of
developing toward TOP/FOE as well. Storm chances decrease after
01Z but still possible through the night.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Monday FOR KSZ010>012-021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-252015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HEAT INDEX
RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY IN DICKINSON...GEARY...AND MORRIS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM AND INTO TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THE STORMS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY...WITH THE HEAT
INDEX RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. SIMILAR HEAT
INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY IN PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
IN MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             WNW MILTONVALE          39.35N 97.45W
08/24/2014  E0.50 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

63

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERMILLION              39.72N 96.27W
08/24/2014                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO OUTBUILDINGS REPORTED.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             2 SE MILTONVALE         39.33N 97.42W
08/24/2014  M1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   PUBLIC

&&

63

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
657 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSZ009-021-250030-
CLAY-WASHINGTON-
657 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 730 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
VINING...CLIFTON AND PALMER.

&&

LAT...LON 3965 9703 3942 9727 3946 9737 3958 9737
      3975 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 210DEG 26KT 3948 9731

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSZ010-022-023-036-250115-
GEARY-MARSHALL-POTTAWATOMIE-RILEY-
731 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RILEY...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 815 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF RILEY...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
MARSHALL AND NORTHWESTERN GEARY COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE LEONARDVILLE...MILFORD
LAKE...BLUE RAPIDS...OKETO...MILFORD...RANDOLPH...RILEY...KEATS...
TUTTLE CREEK LAKE...OLSBURG...FRANKFORT...BEATTIE AND SUMMERFIELD.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 9649 3904 9696 3932 9696 3957 9681
      4000 9679 4000 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 223DEG 32KT 3982 9665 3907 9706

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

KSZ020-021-034-035-250100-
CLAY-CLOUD-DICKINSON-OTTAWA-
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA...WESTERN CLAY...
SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 800 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTTAWA...WESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN
CLOUD AND NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NILES...WELLS...TALMAGE...
MANCHESTER...OAK HILL...LONGFORD...IDANA AND MILTONVALE.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9725 3895 9723 3897 9770 3910 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 229DEG 25KT 3910 9769