Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Topeka, KS

855 
WWUS53 KTOP 180252
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
952 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSC029-157-180330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-140818T0330Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-
952 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLOUD AND REPUBLIC COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 947 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF HARDY TO FORMOSO TO 10 MILES WEST OF
RANDALL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 
LIKELY TO IMPACT WESTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWEST CLOUD COUNTY...WHILE 
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE IN NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL 
REPUBLIC COUNTY.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD     
         DAMAGING WINDS IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  REPUBLIC AROUND 955 PM CDT.
  SCANDIA AROUND 1000 PM CDT.
  JAMESTOWN AND NORWAY AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
  CONCORDIA AND BELLEVILLE AROUND 1015 PM CDT.
  MUNDEN AROUND 1020 PM CDT.
  CUBA AROUND 1030 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3997 9737 3955 9758 3933 9793
      4000 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 314DEG 39KT 4013 9785 3978 9792
          3960 9821

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BARJENBRUCH

219 
WWUS53 KTOP 180309
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1009 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSC029-157-180330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0122.000000T0000Z-140818T0330Z/
REPUBLIC-CLOUD-
1009 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CLOUD AND REPUBLIC COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1005 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHESTER TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA TO
ASHERVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WERE REPORTING TREES AND LIMBS     
         DOWN WITH 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS IN THE COURTLAND AREA.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CONCORDIA AROUND 1010 CDT.
  NORWAY NOW.
  COURTLAND NOW.
  JAMESTOWN NOW.
  MUNDEN AROUND 1015 PM CDT.
  CUBA AROUND 1025 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY 
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9737 3997 9737 3955 9758 3933 9793
      4000 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 318DEG 46KT 3998 9766 3962 9769
          3944 9798

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
826 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Monitoring two MCS complexes tracking southeast over southern
Nebraska and north central Kansas. The Nebraska cluster maintains
a strong outflow boundary around 50 MPH gusting out ahead of the
main line showing a history of 60 to 70 mph winds. Thunderstorm
cluster in Kansas has recently reported wind gusts near 60 mph.
Environment ahead of the system is characterized currently by 3500
J/KG of MLCAPE and effective shear increasing to near 30 KTS as a
southwesterly LLJ ramps up over north central Kansas. Current thinking
is similar to latest runs of the HRRR depicting the two clusters
converging as they track south and east over the CWA. Have therefore
increased precip chances over north central Kansas. Instability gradient
weakens towards central and eastern portions of northeast Kansas
and would expect the cluster to weaken in severity between
midnight and 7 AM. Between now and midnight, slight risk of severe
weather was expanded across north central areas where wind gusts
between 50 and 60 mph and small hail are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Water vapor imagery showing next shortwave trough and associated
frontal boundary moving thru northwest NE. Thunderstorms have
developed over north central NE and should propagate southeastward
within moisture axis situated across central NE into far northern
KS that will lift slowly northward through the night. Expect NE
convection to weaken later this evening with the loss of heating and
weaker shear further south towards the KS border. Will still however
keep the high chance pops near the NE border and decrease southward
in weaker warm air advection. The most likely period will be near
the state line towards sunrise in the far northeast corner. Lows
tonight will be in the middle to upper 60s. More mixing and
increasing clouds should limit fog potential tonight.

Front to the north will move southeast and bisect the cwa northeast
to southwest by mid to late afternoon. Axis of higher cape will set
up along and ahead of the front. Although the shear along the front
will not be as strong as further north and a capping inversion will
be in place...expect afternoon heating and weak convergence along
the front to allow at least some isolated thunderstorms to develop.
If they do...a deeply mixed atmosphere with temps well into the
middle and upper 90s would favor potential strong wind gusts with
any convection that forms. Will keep highest chance pops along and
ahead of the front...or primarily just north and west of the
Turnpike.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Expect scattered convection Monday evening as the frontal along the
frontal boundary as it slowly moves southeast. NAM showing MUCAPE
around 5000 J/KG with around 35 to 40kts of bulk shear into the
early evening hours. Could see a few strong to severe storms with
strong wind gusts the main hazard. The front should sag south of the
CWA Tuesday morning before moving northward as a warm front Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night. Isentropic lift over the warm front
should generate elevated thunderstorms mainly across the northern
CWA. Areas near Highway 36 will have a small chance of morning
thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday will see ridge building over the
Southern and Central Plains. Periodic waves will move through the
flow and models differ on timing and resultant precipitation
placement. Will continue with low end chances of precipitation,
mainly nocturnal. GFS and ECMWF diverge with the timing of an upper
level trough with the GFS keeping the upper trough over the western
states while the ECMWF is much further east over the central U.S..
Will go dry on Sunday given the large differences for now.

Temperatures will be above normal through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

Monitoring the evolution of TSRA over western Kansas and central
Nebraska. Latest guidance is beginning to trend toward convection
weakening west of KMHK by 12Z. Confidence was not high enough to
mention thunder at KMHK at this time. Second concern is fog
potential before cloud cover arrives. MVFR to IFR fog is possible
at KTOP after 09Z while increased winds and cloud cover at KMHK/KFOE
may hinder lower visibilities. Fog is expected to dissipate around
14Z as mixing increases.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190145-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
836 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO CLAY CENTER AND SENECA. TIMING
FOR STORMS TO IMPACT REPUBLIC COUNTY IS AFTER 10 PM. MAIN HAZARDS
ARE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK SOUTH AND EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...SHIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY HOT WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.