River Flood Warning 7, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Upper low now spinning over northeastern Oklahoma still wrapping
light precipitation around from the northeast into Eastern Kansas.
As better deformation and moisture advection continue eastward,
expect this band of light to moderate showers to pivot and shift
eastward as well. Rain chances end for the area by the mid
afternoon hours. Clearing skies in the north central could bring a
few hours of fog this morning. Highs expected generally in the 70s
with lows in the 50s. Will have to watch for possible fog
developing tonight, but with light winds and drier air moving in
have not added to grids at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Wednesday brings a near seasonal day with highs in the middle 80s.
Shortwave trof advancing over the northern plains sends front to
the south for the overnight hours on Wednesday. Convection progged
to fire along this boundary, as well as off the higher terrain in
Colorado, and move east southeast with time. Enough instability
for storms along the front to be strong, and may see an MCS
develop and move across part or all of the area depending on how
western convection evolves. Expect most storms will be clear of
the north counties by mid day and clear of the southeast counties
by mid afternoon. Cooler airmass would keep highs in the 70s.

Friday could be a repeat of Wednesday weather as cooler high
pressure moves east across the area with dry conditions and highs
in the upper 70s. Upper flow shifts to southwesterly through this
period and returns instability and better wind shear across the
Central Plains for the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorm
chances are forecast, but still some differences in timing between
guidance. Better chances currently in the Saturday night time
frame when cold front moves across the northern Plains with storms
on the southern extent. Highs warm back into the middle to upper
80s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

Band of MVFR to IFR showers is slowly beginning to dissipate
across northern KS as the bands continue to wrap westward around
the surface low. Sounding profiles signals IFR expected aft 09Z as
low level moisture increases in the wake of the rain showers. Latest
guidance improves sites to VFR by 15Z at KMHK and 16Z at
KTOP/KFOE with northeast winds backing to the north and becoming
gusty during the afternoon hours. Did not mention for this
issuance but there is potential for fog late Tuesday evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110900-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
351 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BROUGHT SOME AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS UP
TO FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE SEE FLOODING PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AND MAY BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND AND BRINGS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ALLEN                   38.66N 96.17W
06/10/2014  M3.30 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
525 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SW TOPEKA             39.00N 95.74W
06/09/2014  M2.56 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W LAWRENCE            38.96N 95.32W
06/09/2014  M2.49 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   COCORAHS

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RILEY                   39.30N 96.83W
06/09/2014  E3.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 3.5 TO 3.75 INCHES.

&&

KC