Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

480 
WWUS83 KTOP 242350
RFWTOP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014


KSZ024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059-250100-
/O.EXP.KTOP.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140125T0000Z/
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-MORRIS-WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-
FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
550 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

Surface high pressure has continued to move south across Oklahoma
and north Texas early this morning. Pressure gradient has been
increasing across eastern Kansas since midnight. Temperatures have
slowly risen from lows in the lower single digits late Thursday
evening into the lower teens in north central to near 10 in east
central Kansas.

Main concern will continue around the extreme fire danger from mid
morning through the afternoon hours. Winds are also a concern for
today as well. Pressure gradient increases through mid day into the
early afternoon as upper wave moves through the Central Plains and
into the Mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Pressure gradient
decreases from mid to late afternoon. Momentum transfer from top of
the mixed layer (~925mb) would give gusts near 40 mph with sustained
winds of 20 to 25 mph. Temperatures warming into the mid 40s to
lower 50s and low dew point temperatures in the single digits and
teens will lead to afternoon lowest relative humidity of 19 to 26
percent. Area from southeast of a Herington to Holton line will
average around 20 percent or less from late morning through the late
afternoon hours. Given dry fuels and winds will go with a Red Flag
Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM today for the above mentioned area.

Tonight expect an increase in clouds as another wave moves southeast
through the Eastern Plains and into the eastern U.S. trough. Winds
will shift to the northwest behind a surface trough while a cold
front will sag south and into far northeast Kansas by sunrise
Saturday. Lows tonight are expected to only cool into the lower
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

Weak surface ridge passes Saturday with still a bit of warm air
advection beginning in the west late in the day. Increased the
temperature gradient a bit.

Next main player rounding the eastern Canadian upper low brings
multiple fronts through Kansas Saturday night into Sunday night.
Warm front swings through Saturday night with moisture again too
limited for any precipitation. Will go ahead with evening minimums
and some rises into the morning as winds increase. Pacific cold
front then follows in the morning but mixing into the cooler air
should still be enough for upper 40s to mid 50s highs. Arctic front
then blasts through Sunday night with 850 mb temps dropping 15-20 C
by Monday morning. Highs return to the teens for both Monday and
Tuesday as the high slowly builds south-southeast into the Central
Plains.

Stubborn pattern still showing indications of breaking down with
blocking western Canadian upper high weakening and sliding north.
Temps moderate into the late week but no obvious signals for
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 506 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014

Dry air will lead to VFR Conditions. There is a small concern for
LLWS as the surface ridge moves off to the southeast. However all
the guidance shows the surface pressure gradient increasing
through the night and forecast soundings keep a gradual inversion
through 900MB suggesting winds will be laminar. So will monitor
winds this evening and not mention LLWS in the terminals at this
time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR KSZ024-026-037>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1053 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-241700-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1053 AM CST THU JAN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RANGELAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.