Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...It will still be unstable over the region
for the next few days...as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Scattered thunderstorms will continue tonight...with a
few storms producing brief heavy rain for a few minutes. Expect
another round of showers/thunderstorms on Saturday...but on
Sunday the thunderstorm activity should be more isolated. For
Monday...a quick moving cold front will slide southward into North
Central MT during the morning...producing some light rain over
North Central MT while much of Southwest MT remains dry. It starts
to dry out a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday as warmer air moves
back into the region. The airmass becomes unstable again for
Thursday and Friday allowing for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms later next week could be a bit
stronger...as the airmass will be a bit more unstable. In terms of
temperatures...generally below normal temperatures are expected
for this weekend...but still reasonable. Temperatures start to
warm up early next week...and by Wednesday...afternoon highs will
be close to 10 degrees above normal...with afternoon highs near 90
degrees at many lower elevation sites. The warm weather is
expected to continue into next Thursday and Friday as well. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1750Z.
Cyclonically curved westerly flow aloft and a weakly unstable
airmass have combined for scattered to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms across the forecast area. VFR conditions prevail but
some stronger storms may produce brief MVFR conditions in heavy
rain. Most convection will dissipate by 03Z but isolated/scattered
light showers may continue overnight. Pacific cold front pushes
through the state Saturday morning with gusty westerly winds
developing behind the front. mpj

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain showers today are a bit more scattered along the front range
of the Rockies. Thus the potential for flooding has decreased.
Therefore all flood highlights have been cancelled at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  68  48  69 /  30  30  20  20
CTB  48  66  48  66 /  20  30  20  20
HLN  51  71  49  71 /  40  40  20  20
BZN  46  69  43  71 /  50  40  20  10
WEY  34  62  34  65 /  50  30  20  10
DLN  45  68  42  69 /  40  30  20  10
HVR  52  74  50  72 /  40  20  20  30
LWT  47  67  45  68 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
604 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             5 N BOZEMAN             45.75N 111.04W
06/27/2014  M0.25 INCH       GALLATIN           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

MLV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
621 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MTZ014-052-053-280100-
BROADWATER MT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK MT-JEFFERSON MT-
621 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN BROADWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
MDT...

AT 619 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HELENA...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HELENA AND  CLANCY...
   MONTANA CITY...
   EAST HELENA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4665 11231 4684 11163 4681 11161 4681 11151
      4664 11141 4663 11133 4656 11132 4654 11134
      4653 11129 4650 11126 4647 11126 4633 11234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 253DEG 25KT 4655 11216

MLV