Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Great Falls, MT

433 
WWUS55 KTFX 290204
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
804 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MTC005-290230-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-140829T0230Z/
BLAINE MT-
804 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BLAINE COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 802 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 29 MILES NORTH OF
CHINOOK...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE  
         INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN BLAINE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4899 10871 4879 10879 4897 10949 4901 10949
      4902 10943 4901 10874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 279DEG 34KT 4901 10918

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...Upper level disturbance and associated
surface cold front will push through North Central Montana
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected over much of the forecast area this evening, but eastern
slopes of Glacier National Park should see a widespread light
rain. The remnants of the system will move east overnight through
Friday morning with weak shortwave ridging aloft developing by
afternoon. Friday's high temperatures will be slightly cooler than
Thursday with partly cloudy skies and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm in far Southwest Montana by late afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight and will spread into
Central Montana by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop in Southwest and eastern portions of
Central Montana for much of Saturday but only isolated showers are
expected over western portions of Central Montana. Temperatures
will continue to cool back toward seasonal averages. mpj

Saturday Night through Thursday...This period begins with scattered
showers behind the cold front lingering mainly over the southwest
counties and over toward Lewistown.  Slightly unstable conditions,
coupled with northwest flow aloft and residual moisture will also
produce isolated showers on Sunday along the Rocky Mtn Front and
over the southwest mountain ranges. A weak shortwave trof will move
quickly through our forecast area on Mon, bringing a fair amount of
cloud cover, but GFS and ECMWF models disagree on whether we'll
actually see precipitation with the trof, so have kept just a slight
chance for showers from around Harlem to Dillon on Mon aftn/eve.
Tuesday and most of Wednesday looking dry at all locations as weak
high pressure ridging tracks through the state. By Wed night, the
next shortwave trof reaches central WA/OR and pushes a sharp cold
front east of the Continental Divide.  Widespread showers are
expected along/ahead of the front early Thurs morning and then
additional rainfall develops with the passage of the trof axis Thurs
night.  Current model runs are indicating rainfall amounts of a
tenth to one-half inch from the nighttime precipitation.
Temperatures remaining cooler than normal through the period.
Waranauskas

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2350Z.
A weather disturbance aloft will move through the forecast area
tonight. Expect scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms ahead of it
towards the Canadian border (KCB/KHVR) while over southwest MT
(KBZN)expect isolated showers/thunderstorms. Showers/thunderstorms
should end around 06z. Also a cold front will be moving south with
northerly winds developing. The wind shift at KGTF might be an hour
or two too fast. Near and after midnight expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to
spread south over the plains. There could be local MVFR/IFR
visibilities as well. The low clouds should dissipate between
15z-18z Friday. Friday afternoon expect clear skies to scattered
clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible south of KBZN-KDLN line.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  79  54  72 /  20  10  20  40
CTB  47  77  53  70 /  50  10  10  20
HLN  53  83  54  73 /  20  10  30  40
BZN  48  81  49  68 /  30  10  30  50
WEY  40  69  41  62 /  30  20  30  50
DLN  49  81  50  68 /  30  10  40  50
HVR  51  77  55  76 /  40  10  10  30
LWT  52  74  53  69 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
716 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

MTZ011-045-290200-
HILL MT-LIBERTY MT-
716 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND
NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 713 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 33 MILES NORTH OF INVERNESS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. HAIL UP TO PEA-SIZE AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN HILL COUNTY...

LAT...LON 4899 10974 4875 10985 4897 11082 4901 11080
      4902 10992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 286DEG 37KT 4903 11064

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
727 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK           48.61N 112.38W
08/28/2014  M51 MPH          GLACIER            MT   ASOS

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
729 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST          48.96N 111.94W
08/28/2014  M52 MPH          TOOLE              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

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