High Wind Watch 12, NWS Great Falls, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
317 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Sunday...An upper level high pressure ridge will be
over the Pacific Northwest this morning and will move over the zones
this afternoon. A weak shortwave will follow the ridge and will be
approaching the Rockies by late afternoon. This will strengthen the
winds across central Montana and have issued a high wind warning for
the Northern Rockies and the Whitlash area beginning this
afternoon. This shortwave will move through the area quickly and
will not have much time for moistening of the air mass and heavy
precip is not expected. Best chance for precip will be across the
northeast zones. The shortwave will move east of the zones by
early Saturday morning and high pressure will again be building
aloft. This ridge of high pressure will be over the Rockies by
late Saturday afternoon but the the ridge will flatten Saturday
night and Sunday, winds aloft will strengthen, and another period
of very windy conditions is expected across the Rockies and
plains. The high wind warning will be continued into Sunday. In
addition, a high wind watch will be issued for the adjacent plains
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Areas further east could
also see very strong winds but the question at this time is
whether winds in these areas will be able to mix down to lower
levels. Zelzer

Sunday night through Friday...Windy conditions will dominate the
start of the work week across Central and North Central Montana. The
winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching shortwave trough that
will impact the area Monday. While there continues to be some model
discrepancy over location and timing models continue to agree to the
general forecast of a wet start to the work week. An Upper level
ridge builds in behind disturbance and should lead to a relatively
warm and dry period for the bulk of the work week. Some models are
hinting at another round of moisture moving into the area by next
weekend...however model confidence is not high in this solution
beyond stating that another round of moisture is expected in the
days 7-14 time frame. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0445Z.
Expect increasing mid/high level clouds over the region
tonight...but overall...VFR Conditions will prevail through 18z
Friday. After 18z Friday...expect increasing chances for
Rain/Snow to develop over the Rocky Mountain Front. These showers
will start to spread eastward out over the Plains by 00z Saturday.
Expect a line of showers to move through the region from 00z Sat
until 06z Sat...with some IFR conditions in/near showers. Also
mountains will start to become obscured by 21z Friday. Brusda

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Increased flooding problems during the next few days are not
expected. Snow levels should be relatively low and minimum
temperatures should fall near to or below freezing for a time
each night. A weather system will move through the area Friday
night but significant precipitation is not expected. Snow-melt
could increase by Sunday as snow levels rise to between 6500 feet
and 7500 feet. Precipitation could return early next week but
snow levels will fall accordingly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  31  50  36 /  20  50  40  10
CTB  48  28  47  34 /  10  50  20   0
HLN  52  33  51  34 /  20  60  40   0
BZN  50  27  47  28 /  20  80  50   0
WEY  42  20  40  18 /  20  70  50   0
DLN  49  27  47  27 /  10  60  20   0
HVR  54  31  52  34 /  10  90  50   0
LWT  50  30  45  32 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Liberty...
Toole.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 3 PM this afternoon to Noon MDT Sunday
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

URBAN and SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY until 115 PM MDT Friday
for Jefferson County.

URBAN and SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY until 930 PM MDT Friday
for Lewis and Clark County.

&&

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