Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
340 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF A SHARP
TROUGH AXIS BEFORE RIDGING BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA. THE FLOW THEN DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE
IS A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW STALLED NEAR THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL NEVER REALLY
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER AS IT SPINS AND
PLACE AND SLOWLY FILLS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

29/12Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS A SEASONABLE PROFILE WITH A PW VALUES OF
JUST UNDER 1.5". MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH A
MEASURED 500MB TEMP AROUND -11C. THIS IS ABOUT A DEGREE COOLER THAN
THE NAM/GFS FORECAST. A DEGREE DOES NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH...BUT CAN BE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD OF A RISING AIR PARCEL. EITHER
WAY...-11C IS ON THE COOL SIDE AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY UNTIL
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONTAMINATE
THE OVERALL COLUMN.

AT THE SURFACE...THE FL PENINSULA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING A GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER. AS LONG AS THE COLUMN IS NOT TOO
DRY (WHICH IT IS NOT)...THEN THIS FLOW PATTERN TENDS TO BE WET ONE
IN TERMS OF STORMS COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE SE FLOW REGIME IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
HAVE SEEN A FEW MORE FOCUSED STORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST...BUT THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS BEEN DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND PUNTA
GORDA. WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO "RIPPLE" NORTHWARD UP THE
SEA-BREEZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE TAMPA BAY/I-4
CORRIDOR AND THEN EVEN FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH TIME. LOCAL HIRES
WRFARW RUNS AND LATEST HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MODERATE UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...INDICATIVE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS...BUT GENERALLY NOT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIKELY WORDING UP ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY SEES THE EARLIER ENDING TO THE CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST
HOLDING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 00-02 UTC. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...ALL AREAS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AND RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS
WELL. 1000-700MB FLOW IS MODERATE (~10KNOTS) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND WITH SIMILAR MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SHOW
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES SPREADING
NORTH WITH TIME. THOSE WITH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PLANS OUTDOORS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DEAL WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/LIGHTNING. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO FAVOR THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.MID TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. ON SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH BEGINNING TO SINK
SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR
WORKING SOUTHWARD AS WELL. BACKGROUND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL STILL SHOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EACH DAY...AND MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTH WHERE THE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR WILL BE LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN THE AREA WITH SOUTHERN
TERMINALS OF KRSW TO KPGD ALREADY BEING AFFECTED. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WHILE
STORMS WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS.
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AND RESULT
IN A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL FIRE UP ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE TO SEE A STORM AT EACH TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF WATERS PRODUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MOIST LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM REACHING
CRITICAL LEVELS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
AS WELL...WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  74  88 /  50  50  40  50
FMY  72  91  72  91 /  30  70  20  50
GIF  72  89  71  89 /  30  40  30  50
SRQ  72  89  71  88 /  50  50  30  50
BKV  69  88  68  89 /  50  50  40  50
SPG  76  87  75  89 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CARLISLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
456 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-300900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT QUITE
AS HIGH AS THE END OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
550 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             8 ESE BROOKSVILLE       28.51N 82.27W
05/29/2014  E0.50 INCH       HERNANDO           FL   PUBLIC

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC ON POWER LINE ROAD NEAR
            RIDGE MANOR OR 8 MILES ESE OF BROOKSVILLE.

&&

TD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
600 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

FLZ043-242-292245-
SUMTER-INLAND CITRUS-
600 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CITRUS
AND NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR COLEMAN...OR NEAR WILDWOOD...MOVING
WEST AT 10 MPH WILL AFFECT WILDWOOD...ADAMSVILLE...SUMTERVILLE AND
LAKE PANASOFFKEE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 321 AND 329.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH
HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND
OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8230 2897 8229 2885 8196 2868 8201
      2873 8239 2897 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 105DEG 10KT 2879 8208

RAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
603 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             5 SW LUTZ               28.08N 82.51W
05/29/2014  E1.00 INCH       HILLSBOROUGH       FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE
            CARROLLWOOD AREA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

RGARCIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
605 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW MANGO              28.01N 82.35W
05/29/2014  M43 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION TAMPA EXECUTIVE /VDF/

&&

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
614 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WNW MACDILL AIR FORCE 27.86N 82.55W
05/29/2014  M44 MPH          HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BUOY

            OLD PORT TAMPA BUOY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS/44
            MPH.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
621 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

FLZ050-292300-
PINELLAS-
621 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

AT 621 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SAFETY
HARBOR TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF FORT DESOTO PARK...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEARWATER TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
FORT DESOTO PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT SAWGRASS
LAKE PARK...LEALMAN...VENETIAN ISLES AND SNELL ISLE...UNTIL 700 PM
EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 32.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8283 2807 8279 2818 8281 2817 8265
      2797 8263 2799 8264 2800 8267 2794 8271
      2788 8258 2764 8266 2764 8267 2769 8269
      2769 8270 2763 8269 2760 8273 2772 8275
      2786 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 117DEG 11KT 2801 8267 2750 8276