Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR
MELBOURNE SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR VENICE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA SOUTHWARD AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA AND MARINE HEADLINES WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ENSUING BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN 5 PM
AND 8 PM THIS EVENING...AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS UNTIL THIS OCCURS. AFTER 8 PM...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SKIES
CLEARING IN ALL AREAS. WITH 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS REMAINING IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WE SHOULDN/T COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH ALLOWING THE MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE SPRING ARE EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST...AROUND 50 TO AROUND 60 ACROSS MOST CENTRAL ZONES INLAND FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...MARKING THE END OF THE RAINY SEASON AND BEGINNING OF THE
DRY SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL ZONES...TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL STALL OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASH OUT BY MIDWEEK
WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE YET ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL STALL OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. IN GENERAL WE WILL SEE A LOW
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DEEPEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD.
ON MONDAY THE MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 80S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE
60S. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
21/22Z WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH FOR NOW AND AMEND
IF NECESSARY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...BUT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET HAS
PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
PRODUCING A LIGHTER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST
STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
RECOVER ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY...BUT SOME
AREAS IN THE NATURE COAST MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TUESDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  59  78  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  64  83  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  58  79  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  78  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  48  77  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  78  68  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS

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