Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS STARTING TO COME IN. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE MAKING FAST
PROGRESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND THE TWO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD COLLIDE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WITH THE STRONGER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TODAY...THESE STORMS
SHOULD MIGRATE INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
SOUTH...WITH A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...AND COLLIDE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR PUSHING
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO BY
THEN AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE
INSTABILITY...THOUGH THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT CONVECTION ENTIRELY.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN TODAY...THROUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH INTO THE LOW
90S AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.MID TERM (MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY)...
CUT-OFF U/L LOW MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUMP UP AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.  WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND POCKET OF COLD
AIR ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
MAY BE STRONG.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE LONG
RANGE AS CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FILL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  A STRONG U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL BUILD A STRONG U/L RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WILL BRIDGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA.  PREFER ECMWF EVOLUTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA VERSUS THE GFS WHICH EXTENDS AN EAST COAST TROUGH
SOUTH OVER THE REGION WHICH CREATES A SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST IN THE
LONGER RANGE FORECAST.  U/L RIDGE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BUILDING
RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM.   DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY AS A BACKDOOR CONVERGENT BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO COLLIDE OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY COLLISION.
GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE GFS AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF
SOLUTION...HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FOG LOOKS LESS
LIKELY MONDAY MORNING THAN THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...HOWEVER A
FEW SITES MAY STILL SEE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE.
SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD POSE ISSUES
FOR THE TAF SITES ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH HAS BROUGHT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS SET UP. BOATERS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE AWARE OF SCATTERED BUT RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MIGRATE WESTWARD OFF THE COAST.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID
WEEK...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN AND NEAR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...KEEPING FAIRLY LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE...BROKEN
UP BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  91  73  90 /  30  20  10  20
FMY  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  72  93  70  92 /  10  20  10  20
SRQ  70  89  71  87 /  30  10  10  10
BKV  69  92  66  91 /  30  20  10  20
SPG  76  90  74  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...75/LEWIS
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
449 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-260900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
449 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY
AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS GUSTS...AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
PRODUCE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

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