River Flood Warning 14, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
LOCAL MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS: RIDGING ALOFT BUT
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROUGH ALIGNED ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE 10Z-12Z AREA RAOBS HAD
PWAT VALUES IN THE 2.1-2.3 INCH RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE TAE AND NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS WHICH WERE BOTH NEAR
1.9.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONLY SOME CLOUDS AND NO RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS EXPECT BOTH TO BEGIN
INCREASING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS REDUCED THE RUN-OFF
CAPACITY FOR MANY AREAS...WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL FL. FORECASTS LOOK GOOD WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

.AVIATION...
27/12Z-28/12Z. SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WITH VCNTY TSRA AND CB IN A 27/17Z
TO 28/02Z WINDOW. LIGHT NE WINDS BECOME EAST AND SE AT 10KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE STATE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND BE A THREAT TO THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS AGAIN TODAY WITH A MILD SEA BREEZE AFFECT FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE DAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL
TURN A BIT DRIER AND A ONLY A FEW SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WATERS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-280900-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
457 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...PRIMARILY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HEAVY
RAIN IS CAPABLE OF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

GARCIA