High Surf Advisory 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EST MON JAN 6 2014

...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHERN CA TO
THE YUKON. TROUGHING DOMINATED THE REST OF THE CONUS...THANKS TO A
POLAR VORTEX THAT CONTINUED DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER MID-WEST.
SURFACE - STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER/IN WESTERN NY/ TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REACHED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED TO THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
THE POLAR VORTEX ROTATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UP TO NORTHERN
QUEBEC BY WED. THE WESTERN RIDGE MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN THEN
FLATTENS OUT TUE...ALLOWING WEAK TROUGHING TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS. THE SURFACE LOW EXITS INTO ONTARIO THEN QUEBEC TODAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD. THE FRONT REACHES THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST AROUND SUNRISE AND DEPARTS SOUTHWEST FL BY THE EVENING.
THE ARCTIC HIGH RE-CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WORKS EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WED.

THE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE GONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT) SHOWERS FORMING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDER. GFS/NAM/ECMWF TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS
ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE A COLD BREEZY TO
WINDY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN TO THE WEST. EXPECT THE
HIGHS TODAY...NEAR 60 TO LOWER 70S...TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING THEN
COOL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL
CREATE A THREAT OF HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH TODAY. THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO TUE BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT JUST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON LAKES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TONIGHT AND
WINDS SPEEDS STAY UP...SUPPORTING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. LOWS WILL REACH 27 DEGREES OR LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A HARD FREEZE WARNING. LOWS OF 32
DEGREES OR LESS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD...THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
BECOME A WARNING AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE DESOTO AND
HIGHLANDS.

BY TUE THE HIGH WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISHING SOME...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY DAY
BY FLORIDA STANDARDS...40S AND 50S. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SAME
COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE A FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNING ALTHOUGH
SUSPECT THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED BY LATER SHIFTS. AS THE HIGH REACHES
THE EASTERN SEAS BOARD WED THE FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING A
WARMER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE RIDGING DOWN OVER THE
STATE WITH SW FLOW ALOFT TO START THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE PENINSULA
QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPS AND MOISTURE...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC RIDGING BACK ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...BUT MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH
THE HANDLING OF THIS FRONT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ECMWF KEEPS IT
WEAK AND STALLS IT ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A GULF
LOW AND LIFTING IT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH MOVING WITH IT. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EITHER SOLUTION...AND
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING AND
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NW GENERALLY AFTER 15Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT LATER THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS ARE PICKING UP AND WILL BE SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. HAVE OPTED TO START
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS AT 800 AM...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
WATERS MAY SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE A LITTLE BIT LATER IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES AS SEAS BUILD
UP TO 14 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT BUT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TUE WILL BE THE
DRIEST DAY WITH DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH VALUES. HOWEVER WHILE IT
WILL BE RATHER BREEZY THE ERC LEVELS DO NOT SUPPORT A RED FLAG
WARNING. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  36  50  33 /  30  10  10  10
FMY  72  40  55  42 /  30  10  10  10
GIF  67  31  48  34 /  30  10  10  10
SRQ  68  38  53  34 /  30  10  10  10
BKV  63  28  44  24 /  30  10  10  10
SPG  67  41  50  42 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-POLK.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND
     MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL
     HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-
     DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND
     CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
     INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON