Wind Chill Advisory 6, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The main story will be the continuation of our cold weather, as
yet another arctic cold front passes through our region. This
front was poorly defined, marked mainly by an increase in winds
and dewpoints below zero. Clouds will increase tonight as an upper
level trough passes through the region, but moisture will be too
shallow (and confined to the upper levels) for any precipitation.
Strong cold air advection will develop overnight, sending low
temperatures below freezing. A blend of the various MOS, raw model
output, and our previous forecast gives lows ranging from around
20 deg north of Albany and Dothan, to upper 20s around Cross City
and along the FL beaches. Our hard freeze warning now includes all
of our forecast area (except for the beaches). This is probably a
little bigger than it needs to be, but it seemed strange to have a
hole in the warning between our office and our neighbors. Rather
strong winds will combine with the cold temperatures to send wind
chills into the teens late tonight and early Friday, necessitating
a wind chill advisory for our entire area.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
After the passage of another Arctic front tonight, temperatures
will struggle to warm during the day on Friday. The official
forecast went closer to the raw model consensus for Friday high
temperatures rather than the MOS due to poor performance of the
MOS during the Arctic outbreak earlier this month (MOS was too
warm during the day and too cold at night almost everywhere in our
area) and good performance of the raw model consensus,
particularly the locally generated CAM ensemble mean. On Friday
night, an elongated area of high pressure is expected to be
centered over the region, providing the opportunity for favorable
radiational cooling conditions provided high clouds stay to the
south. MOS tends to perform better in radiational cooling
scenarios, so the forecast leaned closer to the MOS consensus for
Friday night. This yields another hard freeze over most of the
area except for the coastal zones. A temporary warm-up back to
near average temperatures for this time of year will commence on
Saturday as winds turn more to the west and southwest.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Models still continue to show a weak Gulf low developing over the
weekend and ejecting ENE to north Florida by Sunday night. This
should allow for an increase in cloud cover and rain chances
Sunday into Monday with moderating temperatures. The rain would
most likely be light. Another cold front is expected Monday with
the east coast trough amplifying again. This should provide a
return to overnight freezes and cool days for the remainder of the
forecast period as a Canadian high moves in behind the cold front.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] This will be a VFR forecast, as the cigs
tonight will be around 10k ft, then clearing on Friday. NW to N
winds of 4 to 8 through this evening will increase overnight,
becoming 10 to 15 KT with gusts around 20 KT. This gustiness will
abate by mid day Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Northerly winds and seas will rapidly increase to advisory levels
tonight as another Arctic cold front passes over the northern
Gulf. Advisory conditions will then quickly diminish by Friday
afternoon as the calm center of high pressure spreads south.
However, advisory conditions will once again be possible this
weekend with the approach of another frontal system with strong
westerly winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
An unusually dry airmass will move into the area tonight and
Friday. Despite a cold day on Friday, we still expect RH values
to drop a little below 20% Friday afternoon, with Red Flag
conditions in Southeast AL. It will be more humid on Saturday so
Red Flag conditions are unlikely. However, an increase in winds
may cause daytime dispersion values to exceed 75.

&&

.Hydrology...
Area creeks and rivers are steady or falling with no hydrologic
concerns. No significant rainfall is expected through the next
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   25  43  21  62  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   28  44  31  60  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        22  39  25  59  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        21  38  23  60  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      23  41  22  61  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    28  46  23  62  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  30  45  27  60  45 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 11
     AM EST /10 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST /9
     AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-Washington.

GA...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Hard Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Hard Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for all zones.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT/DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT