Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2014

.Marine...

Winds will continue to gradually veer across the marine area this
evening as as a pre-frontal trough and cold front moves across the
waters. Even though winds have subsided, seas are holding at 8
feet at buoy 42039 due to an onshore swell component. We therefore
have and advisory for the waters west of Apalachicola until late
tonight. Winds and seas will decrease from west to east on
Tuesday, but then ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
secondary front pushes across the gulf. Winds will drop below
headline criteria Wednesday night and remain low into the weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [830 PM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A 23z subjective surface analysis depicted a cold front stretched
south/southwest through eastern Alabama, and into the northern
Gulf along the FL/AL line. The warm front that had been draped
across Georgia had diminished, and a weakening squall line was
noted across the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida, into the
northeast Gulf.

Convection from earlier this afternoon along the cold front in the
Gulf, generated a low/mid level PV anomaly which is being advected
to the north and northeast towards the Florida Gulf Coast at this
hour. Well ahead of the front, this feature will likely do little
other than bringing some continued light shower activity for the
next few hours. However, where a low level piece of this feature
has drifted more north in the slightly more backed low-level flow,
it is interacting with the cold front and producing an area of
increased convection. Expect the quick moving, short lived burst of
moderate to heavy rain (and possibly and isolated thunderstorm) to
move across the Panhandle and eventually into south Georgia, but
weakening as it does so. At this time, severe weather is not
anticipated with these storms.

Also, we are monitoring steady moderate to heavy rainfall across
the southeast Big Bend where the squall line has slowed
considerably. With the aforementioned disturbance moving northeast
out of the Gulf, it may act to slow this line a bit more and keep
the steady rainfall in place for a few more hours. This could
result in some isolated rural flooding. Expect the rain to clear
our southeast Big Bend counties by dawn.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The initial cold front will be moving into the FL panhandle early
tonight continuing the threat for severe weather and isolated
heavy rainfall. As the forcing continues to pull off to the
northeast overnight along with the associated surface low, the
threat will gradually diminish, with little in the way of severe
weather expected after midnight. By daybreak showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be confined mainly to the FL Big Bend area.

Behind the initial line of thunderstorms, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible for a few hours overnight into
early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, another
vort max and upper level cold pool will reinforce the upper trough
and will swing across the northern portion of the CWA resulting in
scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible
generally north of I-10 during the afternoon and early evening as
the airmass destabilizes under the cold pool aloft.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday expect dry conditions.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will fall below normal with
highs in the lower to mid 70s.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The period will generally be mild with temperatures gradually
warming into the upper 70s Friday with lower 80s for the weekend
into Monday.

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...

MVFR ceilings will be scattered around this evening, gradually
returning to VFR behind the cold front from west to east through
the night. All terminals should start tomorrow unlimited VFR,
before some mid-level cloud cover moves in from the west mid to
late afternoon.

.Fire Weather...

No Fire Weather concerns are expected at least through the
upcoming week.

.Hydrology...

Extensive heavy rainfall has occurred today across the region with
radar/gage estimates of 2 to 3 inches over a widespread area from
the Florida Panhandle eastward through South Central Georgia.
Heavier rainfall amounts of 4 to 5 inches have occurred through 4 pm
ET across Southwestern Georgia, generally from Donalsonville NE into
portions of Southern Worth County. With the bulk of the heavier
rainfall in the last 36 to 48 hours falling across the northern
portion of the river basins, expect rises on several river points to
reach flood stage over the next few days.

In Southern Alabama...the Pea River at Ariton continues to rise
sharply, though the rate of rise has lessened just a bit in the last
few hours. Even with a slower rate of rise, there still appears to
be enough runoff to reach flood stage. Further down through the Pea
River, river levels should stay below flood stage at Elba.

The Upper Choctawhatchee River at Newton will reach flood stage
later this evening. Flows progressing downstream from the
Choctawhatchee and Pea River may end up ultimately pushing Geneva to
minor flood stage by Wednesday night. Caryville and Bruce will
easily reach flood stage over the next few days as routed flows
progress downstream. Moderate flood stage appears likely at Bruce.

Further eastward into the Flint River Basin, heavier rainfall totals
below Albany will likely result in rises above minor flood stage at
Bainbridge. The Ochlockonee River will easily get back to action
stage from Thomasville through Havana.

Expect some rises in the days ahead for the Little River and
Withlacoochee River, but at this time, flood stages are not
anticipated to be met.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   57  74  50  74  44 /  60  20  10   0   0
Panama City   56  73  54  72  52 /  60  20  10   0   0
Dothan        51  74  49  71  46 /  30  20  30   0   0
Albany        53  74  49  74  45 /  60  10  40   0   0
Valdosta      58  73  49  74  44 / 100  30  30  10   0
Cross City    63  78  50  75  45 / 100  60  10  10  10
Apalachicola  59  73  53  71  50 /  60  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EDT /6 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL/HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL/HOLLINGSWORTH
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              30.47N 83.64W
04/07/2014                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AROUND GREENVILLE.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
740 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW CLYATTVILLE       30.68N 83.39W
04/07/2014                   LOWNDES            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR ROCKY FORD RD AND CLYATTVILLE ROAD

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S OCILLA              31.55N 83.24W
04/07/2014                   IRWIN              GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON POPPY ROAD

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S APALACHEE REGIONAL  30.37N 84.15W
04/07/2014                   LEON               FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO TREES WERE DOWN AND ONE TREE WAS LEANING ON POWER
            LINES ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF ST JOE ROAD ALONG TRAM ROAD

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S APALACHEE REGIONAL  30.37N 84.15W
04/07/2014                   LEON               FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO TREES WERE DOWN AND ONE TREE WAS LEANING ON POWER
            LINES ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF ST JOE ROAD ALONG TRAM ROAD.
            CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT

&&

DVD

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