Small Craft Advisory 11, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2014

...Accumulating Ice and Snow Expected Today and Tonight...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Rare winter storm is beginning to unfold across the region this
morning. Regional radar shows precipitation spreading from central
Louisiana eastward into southern Mississippi and central Alabama.
This precipitation will continue to increase through the day and
slowly sag southward as a potent shortwave digs southward to the
central Gulf Coast. At the surface, the cold front has pushed
through the forecast area with a shallow arctic airmass moving
south in its wake. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30s
across the northwestern third of the forecast area, with 40s and
50s across the remainder of the forecast area.

Temperatures will remain steady or slowly fall through the
remainder of the day as the cold air settles in. Light sleet and
freezing rain is expected to begin in SE Alabama and the northern
Florida Panhandle late this morning, with rain expected elsewhere.
The precip over the northwestern counties will increase and
transition to mostly freezing rain early this afternoon...
primarily north and west of a line from Blakely to Defuniak
Springs. Travel will likely become treacherous quickly across this
area this afternoon.

Very few changes made to the previous forecast grids this morning.
Only change was to add sleet for SE Alabama during the onset of
precip this morning.

&&

.Prev Discussions [701 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Our rare winter event will peak during the onset of the short term
period. Expect widespread precipitation tonight with the large scale
ascent and deep layer moisture in place. Sub-freezing temperatures
will gradually spread south and east with the strong cold air
advection in the wake of the Arctic front. By daybreak Wednesday,
all but the southeast Big Bend zones should see freezing
temperatures. This coincides well with the outline of the Winter
Storm Warning which will remain unchanged. I've dropped temperatures
just a few degrees for our northwest and northernmost zones tonight
and adjusted weather grids accordingly for precip type. This means
we could see a changeover to light snow possibly mixed with ice
pellets around 00z or shortly thereafter across SE AL and gradually
spreading into our NW GA zones and the western FL panhandle by 06z.
Otherwise, there were only minor changes to inherited forecast
through Wednesday. We still expect total ice accumulations near or
just under one-quarter inch for this event in an area generally
across our SE AL zones and northern GA zones. This will have to be
monitored closely as more than that will require an Ice Storm
Warning. We also could see snow amounts on the order of 1 to 2
inches generally north of a line from northern Walton County, FL to
just north of Albany GA.

The wintry precip will be tapering off from north to south as a much
drier airmass filters in with the deepening upper trough and surface
high building in. It will be a very cold day Wednesday with max
temps only in the lower to mid 30s for all but the SE Big Bend where
upper 30s look more likely. We also may see a few lingering showers
in the SE Big Bend late in the day. A hard freeze looks likely over
all or most of the Tri-state region Wednesday night with min temps
possibly down into the teens for our northern and most of our
western zones.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...
The GFS and ECMWF were in good agreement as their forecast 500 mb
height patterns gradually transition from a fairly zonal one early
in the period, to that of a more amplified (but still progressive)
one by the weekend. After a possible light freeze Friday morning,
our forecast area will undergo a warming trend. Highs will be in
the 60s Friday, then 70s for the weekend and early next week.
Lows will be in the 40s Saturday, then 50s Sunday and Monday. A
weak frontal system will increase PoPs into the 20-30% range
Sunday and Monday.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] IFR to MVFR conditions at most of the
terminals early this morning are expected to only improve slightly
to MVFR levels as the day progresses, due to a rapidly developing
Winter Storm over the north central Gulf coast. Conditions could
easily worsen back to IFR levels tonight as rain, freezing rain,
sleet, and even snow will overspread will over the terminals from NW
to SE. Both Vis and Cigs could be highly variable given this
situation, and any Taf sites which receive accumulating freezing
rain or snow will likely be saddled with travel delays. The worst
conditions during this event are expected (regarding the frozen
precip) at DHN and ABY, but all of our terminals could be impacted
significantly before the storm is over.

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions will gradually spread from west to east
across the local waters today and tonight. Winds and seas will
remain elevated at these levels at least through Wednesday. A
decrease in winds and seas is expected for the end of the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
No Red flag conditions are expected during the next several days.

.Hydrology...
No significant hydrology concerns are expected through the next
several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  31  36  25  54 /  80  80  50   0   0
Panama City   44  33  38  29  51 /  80  80  40   0   0
Dothan        36  26  33  19  48 /  90  80  20   0   0
Albany        38  28  34  19  49 /  90  80  30   0   0
Valdosta      46  31  36  26  51 /  80  80  50   0   0
Cross City    59  36  39  34  57 /  60  80  50  10   0
Apalachicola  49  35  39  31  52 /  70  80  50   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Wednesday for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     South Walton-Washington.

GA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Winter Storm Warning until Noon CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee
     River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD/HOLLINGSWORTH
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
231 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     FREEZING RAIN    DEFUNIAK SPRINGS AIRPOR 30.73N 86.15W
01/28/2014  U0.00 INCH       WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

            FREEZING RAIN BEGINING TO ACCUMULATE ON OBJECTS IN
            DEFUNIAK SPRINGS.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
411 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FREEZING RAIN    DAWSON                  31.77N 84.44W
01/28/2014  E0.00 INCH       TERRELL            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OFFICIAL ARE REPORTING ICING ON BRIDGES NEAR DAWSON.

&&

WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FREEZING RAIN    NEWTON                  31.33N 85.60W
01/28/2014  E0.00 INCH       DALE               AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIDGES ARE ICING ON HIGHWAY 123.

&&

WOOL

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