Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Convection currently firing up over northern Alabama is moving to
the southeast. We expect some of this activity to make it into our
northern CWA this evening and spread across the remainder of the
Tri-state region overnight. PoPs associated with the Convection
Allowing Models (CAMs) are a bit more robust than that of the NWP
models. We split the difference showing likely north to slight for
most of the Florida coast and SE Big Bend. Some of the storms may
be strong to severe and SPC has all our AL and GA zones
highlighted for slight risk. The greatest threat continues to be
large hail and damaging straight line winds. Low temps will be in
the lower 70s.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Model solutions agree in keeping our forecast area near the Ern
periphery of a 500 mb ridge (centered over Coastal TX) through this
weekend. A series of short wave troughs will pass along Nrn
periphery of ridge and our region during this time. At surface,
frontal boundary will drop south into S/Cntrl GA. Lead MCS over NW
GA this Fri aftn will drop SEWD and brush our Nrn counties early Sat
while upstream MCS across Wrn AR will approach late Sat aftn/early
eve. Both kicking outflow boundaries closer to our area so good
upper and lower dynamics in place for active convection on Sat
and Sat eve with a break in between both systems.

Will go with 30-50% chance of precip Sat aftn/eve and 20-50% on
Sun. Given more WLY steering flow, the highest PoPs over our ERN
zones in the aftn/eve, were we expect richer deep layer moisture
(PWATs around 2 inches) and more forcing from upper level
disturbances. Pretty light steering flow translates to locally
heavy rain especially with passing impulses and boundary clashes.
The synoptic environment may still be favorable for strong storms
with gusty winds plus isolated pulse severe storms with damaging
winds each afternoon & evening, with steep mid level lapse rates
and dry air aloft but much will depend on cloud cover, timing of
thunderstorm development. Local confidence tool with up to 15%
chance of severe storms each aftn/eve with focus across NW third
of CWA Sat and NE third on Sun. Local CAM with over 2700 j/kg sfc
cape over SE AL Sat aftn.

Our temperature forecast followed the guidance consensus closely,
with highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices approaching 100
degrees. Normally this type of synoptic pattern favors temperatures
that are a little warmer than this, but we would need mostly sunny
skies through late afternoon to get these warmer temperatures, and
we are unsure about this right now.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The synoptic pattern will shift to a more normal amplified
summertime scenario with ridging over west, positively tilted
trough over Cntrl and ridge over ern most states. Several H5
impulses will rotate around assocd closed low at base of trough.
This trough will pivot Ewd and amplify with axis over local region
by sunrise Thurs leading to increasing Gulf inflow of deep layer
moisture, an upward trend in precip and increased chances of
strong to severe storms. Axis will then slowly shift and lift ENE.
Expect possibly Wed and Thurs, afternoon diurnally driven
seabreezes will be the main generator of convection each day with
locally heavy rain wherever boundaries clash. Some model
difference in how much Gulf deep moisture inflow advects Newd
ahead of trough and, what impact, if any, weak low Gulf low will
have. Low across Yucatan to start the period which by mid week is
forecast to move into Ern gulf along a surface trough axis and all
this lessens confidence of forecast beyond day 4 until models come
into better agreement.

Daytime rain chances will vary from 10-30% Mon, 30% Tues and 40-50%
Wed thru Fri. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s on Mon, low 90s
Tues and around 90 Wed thru Fri.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] Convection will develop to our NW and spread
SEWD across the Tri-state region this evening and overnight. Some of
the storms may be strong to briefly severe, especially across SE AL
and our GA zones. This activity could affect DHN and ABY after 23Z,
and possibly ECP, TLH, and VLD after 01-02Z. For ABY and DHN, a
TEMPO group with wind gusts to 30 knots was included. Given greater
uncertainty at the other three terminals, only VCTS was included at
this time. Winds outside of convection will continue to be light.

&&

.Marine...
The surface pressure pattern will remain essentially unchanged
into early next week, as our marine area remains situated between
a trough to the north and a ridge to our south, resulting in
mainly light west to southwest winds and relatively low seas. The
exception will be during the afternoon & evening hours, when
strong daytime heating will cause winds and chop to increase to
moderate levels near the coast.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
All but a few river forecast points remain below action stage.
Our forecast rainfall amounts have increased over the past 24
hours, and we now expect much of South GA & AL to get 0.50 to 1
inch through Saturday morning, with locally higher amounts
possible. In FL the amounts will mostly be under 0.50 inches. The
amounts, potentially distributed over a fairly wide area, could
result in temporary stage/flow rises over the next few days.
However, it appears unlikely that river flooding will occur. With
locally heavy rain possible this evening, there could be some
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, there is
not enough certainty at this point to warrant a Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  71  92  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
Panama City   75  86  74  87  74 /  20  30  10  10  10
Dothan        73  93  73  93  72 /  50  40  20  30  20
Albany        73  93  71  93  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
Valdosta      71  92  70  92  71 /  60  50  40  40  30
Cross City    71  89  69  91  70 /  20  40  20  30  10
Apalachicola  73  86  74  86  74 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
816 PM EDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE CHOKEE            31.86N 84.03W
06/06/2014                   LEE                GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ALONG BATTS ROAD

&&

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