Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Tallahassee, FL

335 
WWUS52 KTAE 010403
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

ALC067-GAC099-010413-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-140601T0415Z/
EARLY GA-HENRY AL-
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENRY AND
NORTHWESTERN EARLY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3150 8503 3149 8502 3148 8500 3140 8501
      3138 8522 3139 8523 3155 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 095DEG 17KT 3145 8513

$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Sat May 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Upper and mid level ridging will remain in place through the end of
the period, allowing the mesoscale effects of the sea breeze and
outflow boundaries of this afternoon's thunderstorms to be the main
forcing. The main line of convection through around midnight will be
along the remnants of the east coast sea breeze currently making
its way across Wakulla and Leon in Florida and Thomas/Grady in
Georgia and to the north in Worth county. As these storms continue
westward over the next few hours, they will dissipate with the lack
of diurnal heating. Minimum temperatures tonight will be in the
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] A brief period of TSRA is possible at KTLH and
KABY between 01z and 03z this evening; otherwise fair weather will
prevail. Low-end MVFR cigs, possibly even IFR at times, will develop
at KABY AND KVLD between 09z and 14z. Othwerwise, generally VFR
conditions are expected. Scattered TSRA will develop Sunday
afternoon, affecting KVLD and KECP between 18z and 21z, then KTLH
after 21z. TSRA is less likely at KABY and KDHN.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The large scale amplified blocking pattern of recent days begins to
break down into a more progressive pattern thru the short term. The
CWA will be between upper low over Wrn Gulf of Mex and upper high
over SE Conus. However this low has gradually but steadily filled in
last 12 hrs as both systems continue to drop south and weaken with
low progressively replaced by a weak upper ridge extending Ewd from
Srn Plains to across the deep south by Mon night.

Sunday...at surface, building high along mid-Atlc coast with ridging
Swwd across NE Gulf region yielding increasing ESE flow sfc-H5 and
PWATs approaching 2 inches. Ahead of ridge, weak backdoor front will
be nudged SWWD into SE GA in the late morning and dropping into the
Big Bend in the aftn. Lacking upper forcing, mesoscale processes,
including the front, the sea breeze, and outflow clashes will
provide the primary forcing for convection and PoP distribution,
typical of summertime. The east coast sea breeze will once again
concentrate evening convection primarily across our SW GA zones.
Look for fairly evenly scattered convection with 60% PoPs daytime,
50-20% SW-NE evening POPs, highest near front. Inland high temps in
upper 80s, except mid 80s NE tier GA counties due to clouds assocd
with above boundaries.

Monday...as surface high builds further down the Ern seaboard to
Carolina coast by sundown, our 1000-700 mb winds back and increase
to moderate ELY over east half but remain light ESE over west half.
In addition, with backdoor front now south of CWA and ridge
strengthening, drier air will build in from the ENE pushing PWATs
below 1.3 inches Ern most counties by sunset (still around 1.7
inches Wrn counties). This should reduce convective coverage,
particularly across our eastern zones. 50-20% daytime and 30-0%
eve SW-NE POP gradients. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
norms. Inland highs in mid 80s, low mid 60s east to upper 60s
west.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The Wrn Gulf upper low will slide off the SW as the upper level
ridge moves east toward the Carolinas and upstream ridge begins to
build Newd into the Gulf region and deep south later on Tues thru
Wed. At surface, ridge across the SE region remains largely intact.
The upper ridge will gradually breakdown beginning on Thurs. So
lacking upper forcing especially thru Wed, expect a generally
summertime rainfall pattern of SE low level flow and wdly sct to
scattered convection determined largely by aftn/eve seabreeze and
outflow clashes rest of workweek. Looking longer term, a weak
surface low still appears to form across Bay of Campeche or Nrn
Yucatan Peninsula around Wed bears watching as moisture heads
towards our area beginning on Sat.

Will go with mainly aftn/eve 30-20% W-E POPs on Tues, 20-30% S-N Fri
and 30-40% Sat. Otherwise NIL POPS. Temperatures will be near Climo
with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s.

.Marine...
Winds will generally be out of the east-southeast over the next
several days, veering to more directly onshore near the coast each
afternoon in the sea breeze. A ridge of high pressure will build
down the eastern seaboard and the gradient will become tight enough
for an easterly surge event Sunday night into Monday, which is now
expected to bring cautionary level winds and seas and borderline
advisory level winds Sunday overnight well offshore. As the ridge
settles further south, the gradient will weaken allowing winds and
seas to subside for the early part of the work week.

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.Hydrology...
With a summertime pattern well established across the region,
large scale flooding is not anticipated. As on most summer days,
isolated areas of heavy rain will be possible in some
thunderstorms. These may briefly produce flooding in poor drainage
areas and could cause sharp rises on the faster responding small
creeks and streams. Main stem rivers are expected to remain in
their banks.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  87  68  86  68 /  50  60  50  30  20
Panama City   72  86  72  84  72 /  20  50  40  40  20
Dothan        69  87  67  86  68 /  30  60  40  30  20
Albany        69  86  66  86  66 /  60  60  30  20  10
Valdosta      68  86  65  87  66 /  50  60  40  20  10
Cross City    68  87  67  86  66 /  40  60  30  20  10
Apalachicola  72  85  73  84  73 /  20  50  40  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight CDT tonight for Coastal Bay-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL