Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT Mon May 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Upper ridge building eastward across the area this afternoon may
keep the convective coverage down a bit from what was observed on
Sunday. The ridging aloft will likely also help to end the activity
more quickly after sunset. The best rain chances through
mid-afternoon will be along the Gulf seabreeze. By late afternoon
into early evening, the activity will likely shift towards the I-75
corridor as the already active east coast seabreeze makes its way
west. With weaker lapse rates and limited dry air aloft versus
Sunday, the severe threat should be limited.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
With little change in the overall pattern by Tuesday, expect
afternoon convection to be very similar to Monday, favoring storm
development initially along the Gulf Coast sea breeze front and
then spreading into Southern Georgia as convergence increases late
in the day with the arrival of the Atlantic sea breeze front.
Overall though, coverage shouldn't be especially high with 40
percent pops in the east tapering down to 20 percent across
Southeast Alabama.

By Wednesday, model guidance shows the region between an
upper level low approaching from the west and a ridge just east of
Florida. Still with little overall change in the pattern, will
keep rain chances fairly similar on Wednesday afternoon with
higher chances across the eastern half of the region.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Throughout much of the long term period, the region will be
located in a weakness in the Eastern CONUS ridge. The large upper
low across the western Gulf will shift eastward but weaken with
time. Though the increase in deep layer moisture by Friday will
result in higher rain chances into the weekend, the pattern
doesn't look sufficiently wet at this time. Temperatures early in
the period will be above normal but should trend back toward
normal values by Friday as convective activity limits afternoon
temperatures to the upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] Best chances for thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening will be at KVLD, where TEMPO was added to
forecast. Elsewhere, have left VCTS in place. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
A typical summertime pattern will be in place throughout the week
with light winds and low seas outside the sea breeze zone.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values are expected to stay above critical
thresholds for the next several days with no red flag conditions
expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Aside from some localized minor increases due to local runoff from
Sunday's rain, rivers continue their downward trend. While some
locally heavy rainfall is possible with any of the storms this
week, widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, which will
allow the downward trend to continue on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  91  68  90  66 /  20  40  10  30  10
Panama City   73  88  71  86  70 /  10  30  10  20  10
Dothan        70  92  69  91  67 /  20  30  10  20  10
Albany        70  92  69  92  67 /  40  30  20  30  10
Valdosta      66  92  67  92  66 /  50  40  20  40  10
Cross City    66  91  68  91  66 /  30  40  10  40  10
Apalachicola  72  86  70  84  70 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY