Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
242 PM EDT Sun May 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Afternoon thunderstorms activity will continue into the evening as
the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes interact with various outflow
boundaries to generate convection. Still appears that a few storms
could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the most
likely hazard. The activity is still expected to migrate towards the
I-75 corridor during the evening hours before ending around
midnight. Thereafter, a fair night is expected across the region.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A similar pattern is anticipated on Monday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon across primarily the
eastern portions of the region as the mid level ridge remains
centered across Central Mississippi/Alabama. Most of the guidance
suggests the storms should be centered along or east of the I-75
corridor.

By Tuesday, the mid level ridge will shift a little further
eastward, which should result in a little less storm coverage.
However, the ridge should not completely suppress afternoon
thunderstorm activity.

Temperatures throughout the short term period will continue to be
warmer than climatology. The model guidance seems to be a little
on the cool side right now, so generally went a couple degrees
above the MOS guidance.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Ridging across the Southeast will begin to breakdown by Thursday
resulting in an increase in storm coverage during the afternoon
hours. An upper low across the far western Gulf will shift
eastward throughout the latter part of the week before weakening.
The combination of this feature nearing the region and trough
sliding off the Eastern CONUS by Friday may result in a further
increase in storm chances heading into the weekend. Temperatures
throughout the long term period will continue to be 2 to 4 degree
above climatology, particularly early in the period when rain
chances will be less.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Convection may impact terminals during the
late afternoon and early evening hours, with gusty winds possible.
Activity should diminish after 03Z with a little MVFR visibility
then possible around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure near or over the marine area will keep winds and
seas low through the period. The only increase will be near the
coast each afternoon with the sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low-level moisture should continue to increase through the forecast
period, with RH staying above critical thresholds. Therefore, no red
flag conditions are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
While scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected each
day this week, widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated. As a
result, expect little or no impact to area rivers which continue
to recede.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  93  68  91  68 /  30  20  10  20  10
Panama City   73  90  73  85  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        70  92  70  92  70 /  30  20  10  10  10
Albany        70  93  69  93  69 /  40  40  30  20  10
Valdosta      67  92  68  91  67 /  50  40  30  20  10
Cross City    67  93  67  90  67 /  40  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  73  88  71  83  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY