Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Tallahassee, FL

554 
WWUS52 KTAE 052144
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
444 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

FLC131-052154-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140405T2200Z/
WALTON FL-
444 PM CDT SAT APR 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH PEA SIZE HAIL 
REMAINS POSSIBLE.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3078 8639 3081 8639 3088 8604 3070 8603
      3065 8603 3064 8603 3063 8604 3062 8640
      3078 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 256DEG 29KT 3077 8614

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2014

...Severe thunderstorms possible Monday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A quasi-stationary front extended from roughly just west of Savannah
SWWD to near Cape San Blas this Saturday afternoon. This front
may pivot to become more in line with north Florida overnight with
convection concentrated along and north of the boundary mainly due
to isentropic ascent. Will show PoPs tapered from slight to low end
chance along the coast to likely from near the I-10 corridor
northward. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to range from
0.50" - 0.75" over our northern tier zones to just a few hundredths
along the coast. Min temps will be in the upper 50s north to lower
60s south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The latest NWP guidance is largely unchanged since Friday, except
for slowing down the timing of Monday's squall line. On Sunday and
Sunday night a warm front (currently the quasi-stationary front
bisecting our forecast area) will translate slowly northward. This
will shift the heaviest and most concentrated rain northward into
central AL & GA. On Monday morning a pre-frontal squall line
(or perhaps multiple bands of storms) will move into our western zones
(i.e. west of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River), then exit
east of our region Monday Night or early Tuesday. The large scale
environment still appears conducive for at least isolated severe
thunderstorms. High values of vertical wind shear, Q-G forcing,
and deep layer moisture appear supportive of damaging wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes along a convective band(s) that may be quite
"LEWPy". The main limiting factor, at least from a synoptic
standpoint, will be CAPE. Consensus MLCAPE values are generally
around 500 J/kg in the warm sector, limited primarily by poor mid
tropospheric lapse rates. However, severe weather climatology
suggests that such marginal instability can be compensated for
when shear values are very high. Additionally, if there are breaks
in the clouds there could be pockets of enhanced CAPE.

Tuesday promises to be a much quieter day behind the cold front. The
GFS and ECMWF do show some light QPF associated with a strong short
wave trough rounding the base of the eastern CONUS longwave trough,
but such features rarely amount to much in our region. 1000-850 mb
thicknesses will decrease by 30-40 meters between Monday and
Tuesday, so we expect an end to our recent stretch of above-average
temperatures as highs only reach the upper 60s (Albany and Dothan
region) to mid 70s (Cross City region).

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The deep long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will quickly lift
out into the Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday, followed by a
period of mostly zonal flow over the Gulf Coast. The weather will be
fair. Temperatures, especially at night, will start off below
average, then return to average levels later in the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] The unsettled weather pattern continues with
a stalled front across the area. We will see generally MVFR to IFR
cigs with occasional MVFR vsbys through the TAF cycle. Also,
included convective tempo groups (and possibly some brief gusty
winds) at TLH, ECP, and VLD to start the 18z package. Otherwise,
we can expect periods of showers and possibly TSTMS at any time
through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Light winds & relatively low seas will continue into Sunday morning,
then increase Sunday afternoon through Monday as a strong cold front
approaches from the west. Advisory conditions are possible, as are
severe storms during the day on Monday as a strong squall lines
moves east through the marine area.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No Fire Weather concerns are expected during the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

At this time all of the area rivers are below flood stage. Many of
these rivers remain at elevated stages, still falling from rainfall
about a week ago. Rain chances will be on the increase this weekend
and into Monday before a cold front pushes through the area. In
general, heavier rainfall amounts are expected further north - over
southern Alabama and southwest Georgia - or roughly along and north
of a Crestview to Camilla to Alapaha line. A general 1 to 2 inches
of rain is expected over most of the area, with 2 to 3 inches north
of the aforementioned line. Isolated totals perhaps up to 4 or 5
inches will be possible across the northern and northwest parts of
the area. This will be sufficient to cause rises on most area
rivers, and a few could reach flood stage by early next week.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   61  81  62  81  59 /  60  50  20  80  70
Panama City   63  74  67  75  59 /  40  50  30  80  50
Dothan        59  75  64  76  53 /  70  70  40  80  40
Albany        59  75  62  80  53 /  70  80  30  80  60
Valdosta      61  83  63  81  59 /  60  50  10  70  80
Cross City    60  83  62  82  63 /  20  20  10  50  80
Apalachicola  63  74  66  75  59 /  30  30  20  80  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/LAMERS