Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed an ill-defined,
quasi-stationary front near the FL Panhandle coast and across
north FL, with progressively higher pressure to the northeast.
There was a lot of rain (in terms of area coverage) across our
Gulf coastal waters, but mainly just sprinkles inland. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a developing short wave trough
over our forecast area. There was ample moisture above 700 mb but
the lower troposphere was relatively dry. Most of the rain will
continue to remain offshore until this afternoon, when Q-G
forcing, mesoscale boundary interactions, and insolation will
combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms- mainly in
north FL and south central GA (where our highest PoP is 40%).
There is some question regarding the amount of insolation we will
actually get this afternoon, and we adjusted our high temperature
forecast downward a bit (in line with the latest RAP) to account
for the rather thick clouds.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA this afternoon & evening.

&&

.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   87  68  86  67  89 /  30  50  20  10  10
Panama City   86  71  86  71  88 /  30  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        89  67  83  66  89 /  30  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      85  66  84  65  88 /  40  40  40  10  10
Cross City    84  66  86  65  88 /  40  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  84  72  84  72  85 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS