Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Tallahassee, FL

050 
WWUS52 KTAE 072120
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

GAC019-071-075-155-277-321-072130-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-140907T2145Z/
TIFT GA-BERRIEN GA-WORTH GA-COLQUITT GA-COOK GA-IRWIN GA-
520 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL IRWIN...
NORTHWESTERN COOK...NORTHEASTERN COLQUITT...SOUTHEASTERN WORTH...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BERRIEN AND TIFT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3151 8339 3148 8337 3149 8336 3148 8335
      3124 8351 3133 8372 3159 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 029DEG 14KT 3136 8355

$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Showers and thunderstorms will affect most of the area today as
convection continues out ahead of a cold front. Heavy rainfall
is a concern with these storms with abundant moisture ahead of the
front. The largest amounts of rain will fall over the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia and may cause localized areas of
flooding. Temperatures will peak in the low 90s in southeast
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, upper 80s to around 90 to the
east, and low to mid 80s in the eastern Big Bend where storms
started this morning and will continue through the day.

Tonight, expecting a very similar pattern to the past two nights.
Widespread convection today will settle down late in the
evening, regenerating in the northeastern Florida and southern
Georgia. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The synoptic pattern will change very little from today to Monday,
which should mean another day with relatively high convective
coverage and another threat for locally heavy rainfall. An
elongated trough of surface low pressure should persist over, or
very near to, our forecast area. Weak surface convergence along
the trough and boundaries generated by the sea breeze circulation
should be sufficient to generate showers and thunderstorms. The
12Z suite of model guidance is fairly consistent in showing
another early start to convection in the eastern half of the
coastal waters and into the eastern Florida Big Bend - similar to
recent days - in the 06-18Z timeframe. We concentrated the highest
PoPs in those areas in the morning hours, and then spread 60-70%
PoPs into the rest of the area in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rain wording was included again with slow storm motions and PWATs
remaining in the 2.0-2.2" range.

For Tuesday, the pattern will begin to change slightly with mid-
upper level NVA and the dissipation of the surface trough.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected, but the
coverage should diminish slightly from Monday. Slightly drier air
should push into the northern parts of the area with PWATs closer
to 1.8", setting up a NW-SE oriented PoP gradient across the area.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

For much of the extended forecast period, the Gulf coast region
should be situated underneath a west-east oriented upper level
ridge axis with relatively zonal flow to the north of that. By
next weekend, the models indicate a trend towards an amplifying
trough in the eastern United States. This may help drive a cold
front closer to the Gulf coast and cause a slight cooling trend.
Therefore, the forecast overall shows a return to low 90s high
temperatures and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday to Friday,
with highs in the mid-upper 80s and higher PoPs on the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18z Monday] CIGS will likely bounce between VFR and MVFR
this afternoon as thunderstorms affect local terminals. Storms will
last well into the evening at ABY and VLD. MVFR-IFR CIGS and VIS
are likely again in the early hours of Monday morning everywhere
except ECP.

&&

.Marine...

A weak pressure gradient will continue the pattern of low winds
and seas. Winds should generally be around 10 knots or less, with
seas 2 feet or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria
through the period.

&&

.Hydrology...

Recent heavy rainfall across the forecast area has lowered flash
flood guidance (FFG) slightly into the 2-3"/hr range in many
spots. With the threat of locally heavy rainfall expected to
persist another couple days, isolated flash flooding cannot be
ruled out. However, with a lack of significant atmospheric
features to focus thunderstorms in a particular area, the chances
of flash flooding in any one location do not seem high enough at
this time to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. One area that may be
more susceptible to heavy rainfall would be the area from Taylor,
Lafayette, and Dixie Counties in Florida, north into the Valdosta
area. The heaviest rain in recent days has fallen in those areas.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  89  72  91  72 /  40  70  30  60  30
Panama City   76  87  75  90  76 /  30  50  20  40  20
Dothan        71  91  72  91  72 /  40  60  20  40  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  72 /  50  60  30  40  20
Valdosta      71  88  71  91  70 /  60  60  40  50  30
Cross City    71  85  71  90  70 /  50  60  40  60  30
Apalachicola  74  87  75  88  76 /  30  60  20  50  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VALDOSTA                30.85N 83.28W
09/07/2014                   LOWNDES            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING NEAR DOWNTOWN VALDOSTA WITH SOME VEHICLES
            STALLED IN WATER.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E QUITMAN             30.79N 83.51W
09/07/2014                   BROOKS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

BOLDEN