Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Tallahassee, FL

752 
WWUS52 KTAE 030142
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
942 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FLC073-030153-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-140903T0215Z/
LEON FL-
942 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3030 8431 3040 8442 3044 8420 3039 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 060DEG 8KT 3038 8425

$$

15-HARRIGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak trough from
the Tallahassee area through the Piedmont of SC. The low-mid
tropospheric flow was weak, allowing for late-day/slow- moving
sea breeze fronts & outflow boundaries. As has been the case the
past several nights, showers & thunderstorms were lingering later
than normal, which has been well forecast by the late afternoon
Ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM). Based on this
ensemble, we think most of the rain will diminish between 11 pm
and 2 am. The slow, erratic motion of some of the storms, coupled
with ample deep layer moisture, means a risk of localized flooding
(especially if this occurs over an urban area).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Thursday]...For the next couple of hours, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible at TLH, VLD, and ABY. IFR
conditions and gusts around 30 mph are to be expected. Thereafter
all sites should return to VFR for the remainder of the night.
Confidence is too low to include cig/vis restrictions at TLH, VLD,
or ABY around dawn. Though, due to all of the rainfall, it will
certainly be a possibility. Tomorrow another round of storms will
plague the region, primarily impacting the above sites once again.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Despite the presence of an Upper Level ridge over the Southeastern
U.S., there is still plenty of deep layer moisture advecting in from
the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to keep the sea breeze circulation
convectively active through the short term period. PoPs are
expected to be about 40% across the board on Wednesday, and with
the ridge weakening and beginning to retrograde on Thursday, they
are expected to range from 30% over approximately the eastern half
of the region to 40% to the west, with a smaller area of 50% PoPs
over SE AL and NW portions of the FL Panhandle. Also, with an active
east coast sea breeze front off the Atlantic, showers and storms
could linger well into the evening hours, especially over the SE FL
Big Bend as well as the Valdosta and vicinity area on Thursday night
with a stronger easterly flow.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Very little change in thinking from yesterday's extended fcst, as
weak Upper Level ridging will be the predominant synoptic level
forcer in this fairly stagnant pattern across the SE U.S. It will be
in a weakening and retrograding phase on Friday through the upcoming
weekend, as a trof of low pressure attempts to push southeastward
from the MS Valley region, but this trof will quickly dissipate as
well, with new ridging forming in its place for Monday and Tuesday
of next week. Despite these slight variations in ridging and
trofing, the Sfc pressure pattern should remain weak and plenty of
deep layer moisture will continue to advect into the CWA from the
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, keeping the sea breeze circulation
quite convectively active. Both PoPs and temps should average at or
above climo levels through the period, with daytime Pops mainly in
the 30-50% range, and highs and lows from the lower to middle 90s
and lower to middle 70s respectively.

.Marine...

A weak ridge of high pressure will remain generally to the east of
the waters through much of the period keeping the prevailing winds
light and out of the east to southeast. The weak pressure pattern
and light winds will allow the afternoon sea breeze to turn the
winds to onshore during the afternoon and evening hours on most
days.

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels
through this week, thus no red flag concerns are expected.

.Hydrology...

Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points
potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks
if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as
low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly
localized this week, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  95  73  95  72 /  60  40  20  30  20
Panama City   77  91  77  91  77 /  10  40  20  40  20
Dothan        73  96  73  95  72 /  20  40  20  50  20
Albany        74  96  73  95  71 /  90  40  20  40  20
Valdosta      72  95  71  95  71 /  90  40  20  30  30
Cross City    72  93  71  93  71 /  50  40  20  30  30
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  77 /  10  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY