Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An eastern U.S. trough will move off the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast coast through the day today. In its wake middle and
upper level ridging will overspread the southeastern half of the
country. This will strengthen the surface ridge and force it
further down the Eastern Seaboard subsequently pushing a "backdoor"
front into the Tri-State region. Based on this morning's (13Z)
subjective analysis, the front was located near the SC/GA line with
a pre-frontal trough draped through central and southeast Georgia,
and another surface trough oriented northwest to southeast from
Montgomery through Cairo and down the western Florida coastline.
While the westernmost trough appears to have moved very little since
this mornings update, the pre-frontal trough appears to have
weakened under the influence of a decent area of convection across
northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

Ongoing convection should continue its westward progress this
afternoon and interact with the aforementioned western trough most
likely conglomerating south and east of a line from Tallahassee to
Valdosta, with more of a widely scattered nature across south
Georgia. By the evening, the backdoor front will press into south
Georgia and both focus convection along it and force the remaining
and additional storms further southwest into SE Alabama and the
Florida panhandle. There is a potential for gusty to marginally
severe winds with the strongest storms today, and this will likely
be across the eastern and southeastern Big Bend of Florida in the
mid to late afternoon timeframe.

Finally, the heat will continue to be a concern today with maximum
temperatures forecast to climb to the upper 90s region-wide.
Marginal heat advisory conditions are expected today, especially
west of the majority of the convection this afternoon. This should
be the last day where both temperatures and heat indices will run
above normal.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A deep, dry airmass will move into our forecast area Monday and
Tuesday, greatly reducing our rain chances. Although high
temperatures won't exactly be cool, they will be back to average
(lower 90s) for this time of year. Additionally, the lower
humidity and fresh east winds will make it feel more pleasant than
what we've experienced the past several days.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The GFS and ECMWF forecast an area of higher heights over the
Southeast through the period. Initially the deep layer moisture is
forecast to be limited, but by next weekend it may be sufficient
to support scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms (as opposed
to just isolated storms Wednesday through Friday). Temperatures
will be near climo, with lows in the 70s and highs in the 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF,
outside of showers and thunderstorms. Restrictions due to storms
are most likely at TLH, ABY, and VLD this afternoon, followed by
ECP and possibly DHN this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Northeast winds will increase overnight as the "backdoor" cold
front moves southeast across the marine area. Winds & seas will be
well above average for this time of year through at least Tuesday
night- possibly reaching advisory levels at times.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

After scattered storms today, expect a stretch of dry conditions
through much of this week. As a result, river stages will remain
low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  93  72  92  72 /  40  10  10  20  20
Panama City   78  92  75  92  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
Dothan        73  92  69  91  70 /  40  10  10  10  10
Albany        72  92  68  92  69 /  20   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      73  92  68  91  68 /  20  10  10  20  10
Cross City    75  91  71  91  69 /  40  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  78  92  76  90  77 /  50  10  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-Tift-
     Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY