Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As high pressure continues to build over the southeast, drier,
hotter conditions are on tap for today and through the week. The
sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms have had a later start today
and will also have lower coverage than yesterday, staying mostly in
north Florida. Since there won't be as heavy cloud cover with high
pressure building and with delayed storm onset, temperatures will
clime to the mid to upper 90s today, low 90s along the coastline.
Tonight, lows will be in the mid 70s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will continue to build across the region aloft and at
the surface, resulting in very hot conditions. Highs will be at
near record levels in the upper 90s to near 101 both days with
heat indices in the 105-110 range. In additional, anomalously high
850 temperatures will rise to 21-22C by Friday, so unless
dewpoints mix out into the lower 70s, a Heat Advisory is a given
for much of our forecast area Thursday and especially Friday.
Overnight lows will be warm in the mid 70s. Precipitation will be
below normal as will sky cover, with showers and isolated
thunderstorms confined to Florida zones focused along the
afternoon sea-breeze.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming
weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long
stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again
likely, although heat indices will become more dependant upon
afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An
east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the
region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level
trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side
of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances
early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress
daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens
midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential
development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global
models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing
much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be
monitored carefully in the next several days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should be more limited today,
with KTLH and KECP having the best chance of any impacts. MVFR/IFR
cigs and vsbys possible once again tomorrow morning at VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the
upcoming weekend. Seas will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite drier air moving into the area, relative humidities will
remain above red flag criteria through the week. No red flag
conditions are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches yesterday. The next few
days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area
rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  98  75 100  76 /  10  30  10  20  10
Panama City   78  97  78  97  79 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dothan        74  99  76  99  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
Albany        75 100  76 100  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      74 100  74 100  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
Cross City    74  98  74  97  75 /  10  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  76  94  77  95  79 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON