Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Tallahassee, FL

409 
WWUS52 KTAE 091806
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

FLC059-063-133-091816-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0220.000000T0000Z-140809T1815Z/
JACKSON FL-HOLMES FL-WASHINGTON FL-
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
HOLMES AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115
PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3099 8595 3099 8584 3088 8553 3068 8567
      3087 8603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 297DEG 21KT 3085 8577

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1148 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Today's set up will be very similar to what we saw yesterday.
Regional 13Z surface analysis shows weak pressure gradient in place
over the southeast with high pressure in the central northern Gulf.
Surface dew points were in the low 70s across the southeast and in
the mid to upper 70s over coastal Texas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi, the eastern Florida Big Bend and in south Florida. The
stationary frontal boundary to our northwest has made very little
movement since yesterday, which will mean this boundary will once
again serve as forcing for storms and keep coverage in our Georgia
counties high again today. Like yesterday, storms have already
started over the Gulf coast and along the FL Big Bend. Coverage will
increase further inland through the day and be similar to yesterday-
high on our extreme westernmost zones in the late morning, then
moderate around the Apalachicola River and high in our northern
Georgia and Alabama counties. Highs will be in the mid 90s with heat
indices in 100-104 range.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday] VFR will prevail through the period with
west-southwest winds generally less than 10 knots. VCTS near ECP
this morning will move inland and afternoon coverage will be highest
near DHN, ABY, VLD.

&&

.Prev Discussion [309 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Deep layer ridging south of the region and weak troughing to the
north will maintain a west to southwest low to mid level flow across
the region. Scattered convection will develop each afternoon and
dissipate during the evening. Overall coverage is expected to be a
bit higher across our northern zones closer to the trough. Temps
will remain a couple of degrees above normal.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The weak mid/upper level ridge will give way to a more amplified
pattern in the form of a trough by Tuesday night and lasting
through the end of next week. This will set up an east-to-west
oriented surface trough near the Tri-State lines and yield well
above average rain chances region-wide. Afternoon highs will
remain very close to seasonal averages, in the low 90s.

.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern typical of summer will remain in place
across the waters. This will generally keep winds 10 knots or less
and seas 2 feet or less. A ridge south of the area will maintain
generally southwest flow over the marine area.

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels for
the next several days. Red flag criteria will not be met.

.Hydrology...
Our area rivers remain at or below their normal levels. With
widespread significant rainfall not expected over the next few days,
we are not expecting any river flooding. However, any thunderstorms
that form will be slow-moving and could cause localized flooding of
poor drainage areas.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  74  95  75  97 /  40  20  50  30  50
Panama City   92  77  90  77  91 /  40  20  40  30  40
Dothan        95  73  93  74  94 /  40  30  50  30  50
Albany        95  74  94  74  95 /  40  30  60  30  50
Valdosta      96  73  97  74  96 /  40  30  50  30  50
Cross City    93  74  93  74  93 /  50  20  30  30  40
Apalachicola  92  76  91  77  91 /  40  20  30  30  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL