Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Tallahassee, FL

729 
WWUS52 KTAE 072106
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
506 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

FLC129-072116-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-140807T2115Z/
WAKULLA FL-
506 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAKULLA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3000 8447 2998 8452 3000 8452 3000 8455
      3001 8455 3003 8458 3010 8466 3011 8465
      3013 8467 3016 8448 3010 8439 2998 8442
      2998 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 045DEG 10KT 3002 8452

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A rather diffuse pattern remains in place locally with weak flow.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected through the early
evening hours in association with the sea breeze with activity
rapidly diminishing after sunset. The highest coverage is expected
to be across Florida. Overnight lows will mostly be in the mid
70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The Tri-State region will remain on the northern edge of upper
level ridging, under a mostly zonal flow regime through Saturday.
A very weak, elongated shortwave will invade the ridge on Friday
as it moves southeast through the region. This feature could bring
some showers and storms during the first part of the day across
southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle. This area should be
suppressed later in the day in the wake of the wave, though an
enhancement in convective coverage will be possible across the
southeast Big Bend later in the afternoon. On Saturday, a mid-
level wave will move through the ridge and enhance convective
coverage area-wide. Away from convection afternoon highs will be
quite high each afternoon, in the middle to upper 90s. Heat
indices should remain just below 105 degrees.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A slightly more disturbed pattern is expected through the extended
range. The mid/upper ridge will weaken locally as the southern
extension of east coast troughing spreads south into the region.
This will likely manifest itself at the surface in the form of a
trough as well. The combination of a lingering trough and also the
afternoon seabreezes will keep rain chances higher than normal.
Towards the end of the period, a weak front may even approach our
northern most Georgia and Alabama counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Isolated to scattered convection is expected to continue through
the afternoon hours with convection diminishing shortly after 00z.
ECP and TLH have about a 40-50% chance of seeing convection with a
20-30% chance at DHN, ABY, and VLD. Winds will be light outside of
the convection.

&&

.Marine...

Southwesterly winds below headline levels will prevail for the
next several days. Seas will remain at or below 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible, mostly early morning through
early afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Our area rivers are currently at or below their normal levels. With
no significant rainfall expected over the next week, we are not
expecting any flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  97  73  96  74 /  20  40  10  40  30
Panama City   78  90  76  89  77 /  10  30  10  30  20
Dothan        74  96  74  95  74 /  20  30  20  40  30
Albany        74  97  74  95  75 /  10  30  30  50  30
Valdosta      72  96  71  96  72 /  20  40  30  50  30
Cross City    74  94  72  94  72 /  20  50  20  40  30
Apalachicola  77  89  75  88  76 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE