Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Tallahassee, FL

381 
WWUS52 KTAE 031858
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

FLC039-077-031915-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-140803T1915Z/
GADSDEN FL-LIBERTY FL-
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY AND SOUTHWESTERN GADSDEN COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOWRY...OR 17 MILES EAST OF
BLOUNTSTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAWDUST
AND JUNIPER

LAT...LON 3034 8483 3055 8491 3056 8463 3036 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 176DEG 3KT 3040 8476

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1044 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Broad upper trough remains in place over the eastern states this
morning. However, the southern extent of the trough axis is quite
weak as evidenced by only 15 knots of west-northwest flow at
500mb in the 12Z KTAE sounding. At the surface, a trough of low
pressure extending from South Florida up the southeast coastline
is generating weak northeasterly low-level flow across the
forecast area. Weak southeasterly winds atop the northeasterly
flow is helping to reinforce the low cloud deck across southern
Georgia and southeastern Alabama. It will likely be early to mid
afternoon before the low clouds completely burn off in these
areas. These low clouds will limit insolation for these areas and
likely limit convective development this afternoon. Therefore,
have lowered max temps and PoPs for the northern half of the CWA
this afternoon.

Across much of Florida, the low clouds have already burned off
with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 80s. Moist and
relatively unstable atmosphere (PWAT 1.9 inches and CAPE around
3000 j/kg) will support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across Florida this afternoon. Best rain chances are
likely along and just southeast of the cloud/cloud-free boundary
stretching roughly from Valdosta to Panama City.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Light northeasterly flow is helping to keep
the low clouds in place at KABY and KDHN this morning. Expect
these clouds to slowly burn off by early afternoon. The early
clouds may limit the chances for TSRA this afternoon at these
sites so have reduced the mention in the TAF's. However, TSRA
appears more likely at KTLH, KECP, and KVLD this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [533 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

At minimum, a weak extension of the eastern CONUS trough will
continue to influence the weather pattern locally. At the surface,
this will prevent well defined surface pressure fields from
developing. Overall a relatively weak, lower than normal, pressure
pattern will exist. With this slightly more unstable than usual
pattern, expect a higher coverage of showers and storms through
Tuesday and beyond. The coverage pattern will be influenced both
by a disturbed afternoon seabreeze, and a weak quasi-stationary
front which should remain near the Tri-State lines.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A wet pattern in place this week with an upper level trough
staying relatively in place through mid-week. A positively tilted
upper level trough lies over the eastern CONUS with a ridge to the
west over the four corners region and the Bermuda High to the
east. This pattern will stall a surface front across our area,
keeping rain chances high. Slight movement eastward will lower
chances for rain Wednesday, but on Thursday, a piece of vorticity
will swing through the upper level trough, lifting the trough and
the front northeastward. As the front lifts northward, low-level
moist, southerly flow will keep rain chances around 40% through
Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm with highs in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.

.Marine...

As mentioned above, we'll be experiencing a rather weak pressure
for the next several days. This will result in relatively light
winds and very low seas through next week.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns over the next few days with
higher rain chances resulting in high afternoon relative humidities.

.Hydrology...

A wet pattern will be in place through early next week. Average
rainfall totals are expected to be around 1-2". With area rivers
at or below their normal levels, this is not expected to any river
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  71  94  72  94 /  70  50  60  50  50
Panama City   85  74  90  76  90 /  60  50  50  40  50
Dothan        88  70  92  71  93 /  50  40  50  40  50
Albany        89  71  93  70  93 /  50  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      91  70  95  70  94 /  50  30  50  40  50
Cross City    92  71  93  72  92 /  50  50  60  50  50
Apalachicola  85  74  89  75  90 /  40  50  50  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/WOOL