Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Tallahassee, FL

957 
WWUS52 KTAE 151552
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

FLC039-073-077-129-151630-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140715T1630Z/
LEON FL-GADSDEN FL-WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY...WESTERN WAKULLA...GADSDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN
LEON COUNTIES...

AT 1149 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND 
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM OAK GROVE TO SANBORN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF BAINBRIDGE TO 15 MILES NORTH OF CARRABELLE...MOVING 
EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SAWDUST...MOUNT PLEASANT...BLOXHAM...GRETNA...WETUMPKA...DOUGLAS 
CITY...SOPCHOPPY...LAKE TALQUIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 8439 3002 8457 3010 8466 3022 8468
      3027 8473 3045 8475 3050 8478 3052 8481
      3071 8486 3069 8442 3020 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 270DEG 21KT 3069 8472 3006 8460

$$

42-DVD

099 
WWUS52 KTAE 151605
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1205 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

FLC077-151615-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140715T1630Z/
LIBERTY FL-
1205 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3002 8439 3002 8457 3025 8462 3070 8469
      3069 8442 3020 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 270DEG 21KT 3069 8463 3006 8451

$$

FLC039-073-129-151630-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140715T1630Z/
LEON FL-GADSDEN FL-WAKULLA FL-
1205 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL WAKULLA...CENTRAL GADSDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN LEON
COUNTIES...

AT 1203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND 
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM GRETNA TO SOPCHOPPY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES 
SOUTH OF BAINBRIDGE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING 
EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE 
TALQUIN...QUINCY...GREENSBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 8439 3002 8457 3025 8462 3070 8469
      3069 8442 3020 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 270DEG 21KT 3069 8463 3006 8451

$$

42-DVD

278 
WWUS52 KTAE 151617
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1217 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

FLC039-073-129-151627-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-140715T1630Z/
LEON FL-GADSDEN FL-WAKULLA FL-
1217 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WAKULLA...CENTRAL
GADSDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THESE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 
30 TO 40 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH TALLAHASSEE.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3002 8439 3002 8457 3025 8462 3070 8469
      3069 8442 3020 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 270DEG 21KT 3068 8453 3005 8442

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1027 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A fairly active day of convection is expected with a tropical
airmass in place and a cold front approaching. Modifying the 12z
KTAE sounding for the 14z observed T/Td at the airport already
shows SBCAPE values near 3000 j/kg, and this is in close agreement
with the SPC mesoanalysis. Expect to see a few stronger storms
with gusty winds this afternoon, and an isolated severe storm or
two remains possible. The only changes to the previous forecast
were to add a mention of gusty winds and to tweak PoPs slightly to
account for the latest radar trends and add some temporal detail.
Expect one batch of storms to move along the coast and across the
Florida zones through the early to mid afternoon, and then a
second batch to develop closer to the front and affect southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia later this afternoon. This is in
agreement with the CAM Ensemble.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Wednesday] The coverage of rain and storms should be
high today with most of the terminals likely to be affected. MVFR
CIGS and IFR VIS and gusty winds will be possible with
thunderstorms. After 07z, areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are expected
especially where residual moisture lingers due to Tuesday's rain.

&&

.Prev Discussion [608 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The approaching cold front will continue to cross our area through
Thursday. Tonight, model MLCAPE values will still be in the
2000-2500 J/kg range for the early hours of the evening, keeping a
potential threat for damaging winds through midnight, when
instability will decrease. By Wednesday, the front is expected to
bisect the area roughly from ECP to FZG, keeping chances for
thunderstorms highest south and east of this line. With 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE Wednesday, there will still be chances for damaging
winds with these storms, although less so than today/tonight. The
front will continue its eastward progression Wednesday night and
is forecast to lie roughly from CTY to JAX on Thursday, giving the
southeastern Big Bend the highest chances for storms on Thursday.
Highs will be in the low 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows tonight
will be in the low 70s. With some of the cooler air working its
way into the area by Wednesday night, lows will be in the mid 60s
in SE AL, upper 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The frontal boundary will stall over the southeastern Big Bend by
early Thursday as the upper trough weakens and the axis lifts
northeast. With drier air in place, expect only isolated
thunderstorms for most of the region. Moisture will begin to
increase once again on Friday as a shortwave trough approaches
from the west. This feature will help to enhance convection by
early Saturday through the weekend.

.Marine...
Westerly winds will peak around 15 knots during a cold front passage
Tuesday through Wednesday night, approaching cautionary conditions.
After the frontal passage late Wednesday night, winds will weaken
and remain below headline criteria through the rest of the period.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected thru the work week with
relative humidity values above critical levels.

.Hydrology...
Widespread rain is expected today, and some of it may be heavy. The
greatest potential for heavy rain appears to be in South AL & GA,
where a few of the Convection Allowing Models forecast rainfall
amounts to exceed local Flash Flood Guidance. Sometimes these values
tend to be too high, but this will be monitored as several of these
models forecast at least 3 inches of rain in this general area. As
for the effect on local rivers- everything will depend on whether or
not this rain occurs right over one of the basins or not.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  73  90  69  94 /  80  40  30  10  10
Panama City   88  75  89  73  89 /  80  40  30  10  10
Dothan        90  70  90  66  90 /  80  50  20  10  10
Albany        90  71  90  66  92 /  80  50  20  10  10
Valdosta      91  71  90  68  93 /  80  40  30  10  10
Cross City    91  73  87  70  92 /  60  50  50  20  20
Apalachicola  87  76  89  73  89 /  80  40  30  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOCK/DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1113 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 W PANAMA CITY BEACH   30.21N 85.88W
07/15/2014  M39 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            THE PCBF1 TIDE GAUGE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 39 MPH.

&&

DVD