Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

17Z surface analysis shows high pressure still over the GOMEX and a
surface cold front still off to our northwest- roughly along the Wrn
edge of the Appalachian Mtns, curving westward across the
Mississippi Valley. Storms along boundaries out ahead of the front
may reach SE AL late this afternoon, but the main forcing for most
of the afternoon is the seabreeze. This seabreeze convection will be
focused on north FL, primary the Panhandle and Wrn Big Bend today,
with a localized pocket of dry air over the Ern Big Bend area
helping to suppress convection. As is typical with the seabreeze,
the chances for storms will taper off overnight, but with the
approaching front, there will still be chances for storms in the SE
AL area during the night. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s
with low temperatures tonight in the low 70s.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The end of the week will continue to be dominated by an upper level
trough across the eastern U.S. and an upper level ridge across the
central and western U.S. A series of shortwaves moving through the
eastern trough will push the associated front further south into the
southeast U.S. By Thursday the weak front should be north of our
area stetching from northeast GA across central Alabama, and by
Friday should slide further south across the northern portion of our
region, roughly near a line from Albany to Dothan. This means that
PoPs will significantly increase for the end of the week compared
to the previous week's relatively dry weather.

We should see a similar pattern that has been observed the past few
days with a series of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) developing
along the front in the evening and propogating southward during the
overnight hours. Development of an MCS tonight will affect our area
on Thursday in terms of residual cloud debris and outflow
boundaries, as well as possibly suppressing sea breeze development
along our panhandle coasts. However, late in the day Big Bend
seabreezes should develop and as they move inland may interact
with any lingering boundaries from overnight convection. With the
front still across the area Friday, expect a similar scenario with
a late night/early morning MCS, followed by late afternoon
disturbed seabreeze/outflow induced convection. Afternoon highs
will be not be as hot due to increased convection and cloud cover.
Highs will generally be in the lower 90s, with higher readings in
the mid and possibly upper 90s Thursday across the Big Bend
region.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The weekend will begin with an upper ridge across much of the CONUS
and a weak, shallow trough in the northeast. By early in the week
the pattern will have transitioned to another large scale trough in
the east with a retrograding ridge along the west coast. By midweek
the eastern trough becomes positively tilted stretching from New
England to the central rockies. This suggests that our rain chances
will be above normal after the weekend due to the long wave trough
and a return of deeper moisture. For the weekend, however, when
typical summer convection is expected, we could see a couple of
hot days again with highs in the upper 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail with the exception of brief
MVFR conditions at TLH, ECP, DHN and VLD due to afternoon
seabreeze thunderstorms. Some guidance has fog tomorrow morning at
VLD but local models are not as favorable so did not mention in
forecast.
&&

.Marine...

In general light winds and low seas will prevail under a weak
surface pressure pattern for the next several days. A cold front
will sag across the far southeastern U.S. which could result in
clusters of thunderstorms moving offshore mainly during the morning
hours. This would enhance waves and winds in the vicinity of any
such development.

&&

.Fire Weather...

As moisture returns to the area and we shift to a more typical
summer pattern, relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds. No red flag conditions are expected ove the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Though rain chances will be much higher than recent days to finish the
week, most rivers are holding steady at levels well below flood
stage with several in low flow. The expected rainfall totals over
the next several days will not be significant enough to push any
rivers into flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  94  73  94  73 /  10  50  20  50  20
Panama City   77  91  76  93  77 /  30  40  30  40  20
Dothan        74  93  72  96  74 /  30  50  30  50  20
Albany        74  93  73  95  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      72  93  71  94  72 /  10  60  30  50  20
Cross City    72  93  71  93  72 /  20  40  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  89  73  90  74 /  30  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH/MOORE
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...HOLLINGSWORTH/MOORE
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...HOLLINGSWORTH/MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
508 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACHTON                30.73N 84.14W
07/09/2014                   GRADY              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN THE BWACHTON AREA.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEACHTON                30.73N 84.14W
07/09/2014                   GRADY              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN THE BEACHTON AREA.

&&

BOLDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
509 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ALZ065-068-FLZ007-008-092215-
COFFEE AL-GENEVA AL-NORTH WALTON FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-
409 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COFFEE...WESTERN
GENEVA AND NORTHERN WALTON COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

AT 407 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OPP TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF
LAUREL HILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OPP TO DEERLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS THIS
STRONG COULD CAUSE SOME SPORADIC DAMAGE TO TREES OR POWER LINES.

LAT...LON 3099 8640 3100 8619 3144 8620 3154 8581
      3100 8593 3099 8603 3077 8604 3070 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 247DEG 22KT 3129 8627 3073 8642

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASVILLE             30.84N 83.98W
07/09/2014                   THOMAS             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN AT PARK AND BROAD STREET IN DOWNTOWN
            THOMASVILLE.

&&

BOLDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
524 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

ALZ066-067-092230-
DALE AL-HENRY AL-
424 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR DALE AND HENRY
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

AT 420 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW... ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT RUCKER TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
COLUMBIA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOWE ARMY HELIPORT TO
FARLEY NUCLEAR PLANT...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AND MAY OCCUR WITHOUT ANY RAIN OR
THUNDER ACCOMPANYING. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN CAUSE SOME SPORADIC
DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

LAT...LON 3165 8508 3154 8504 3147 8507 3132 8508
      3132 8541 3129 8542 3128 8549 3125 8549
      3127 8560 3127 8566 3126 8567 3127 8578
      3162 8578 3162 8543 3171 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 181DEG 18KT 3141 8578 3122 8509

08-LAMERS

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