Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2014

...High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 deg expected
through early next week...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible through this
evening. Then partly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to mid
70s.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A hot and relatively dry pattern will persist thru the short term.
The deep layer ridging will prevail across our forecast area
although a series of shortwaves exiting ewd from upstream trough
will begin to weaken and retrograde ridge by Mon night. However, a
low remains off N/Cntrl fl coast keeping CWA on its subsident
side. All models forecasting above-average 500 and 850 mb heights.
At surface, NE Gulf high shifts Wwd with weakening ridge Mon-Mon
night. low off GA/NE FL Coast on Sunday is forecast to drift Swd
to off NE FL thru Mon night but noted model differences. NAM
shifts low Swwd and close to coast while GFS/ECMWF take a more sly
as less aggressive track. Either way, local impact should be
minimal. Best scenario is focused on mainly 1000-700mb NLY flow
pinning any seabreeze near coast. With very little forcing, and
abnormally low SBCAPE values, expect NIL POPs on Sun except for
20-30% SE Big Bend and 20-30% on Mon, highest Ern counties closest
to low and furthest from ridge axis.

The above normal H85/5 temps combined with NLY flow and lack of
clouds means hot daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. It will feel muggy but fortunately there will be enough
boundary layer drying to limit heat index values below 105. Lows
will be in the low to mid 70s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The period begins with Gulf ridging weakening/retrograding in
response to Nrn stream longwave trough moving Ewd into east half
of Conus. Trough progressively deepens SEWD thru early Fri further
weakening ridge. Then, it lifts ENE of CWA and ridge begins to
restrengthen. At surface, trough assocd with upper trough pushed
into SE region Tues into Wed with assocd low off NE FL Coast.
However, models not in good agreement with evolution of low. NAM
more aggressive with closed low remaining off NE FL coast, while
GFS weakest maintaining open trough over Cntrl FL Peninsula. ECMWF
in between taking a weak low Newd. Still, NHC notes that
conditions are conducive for gradual tropical development of low,
40% chance thru 48hrs and 60% thru 5 days and although main impact
would be along east coast, system will be closely monitored. For
now regarding evolution of low, will follow other WFOs and seek a
compromise solution until models come into better agreement.

So overall forecast will show deepening trough with increasing SWLY
flow, deep layer moisture and impulses ejecting SEWD over CWA, Tues
thru Thurs which kicks surface tough Newd and low to GA/SC border by
early Fri allowing surface ridging to rebuild into CWA for a return
to a more typical summertime pattern centered around daily seabreeze
development. Will go with 30% Tues, 30-60% Wed thru early Fri, then
20-40% on Sat. Period will be quite warm with highs in the mid to
upper 90s with a few spots approaching 100 degrees each day.
Highs on Fri and Sat in the low to mid 90s. Lows generally in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
An area of high pressure will remain centered southwest of the FL
Panhandle, providing light northwest winds and low seas across the
marine area. The exception will be during the afternoon & early
evening hours, as strong daytime heating of the land will cause the
winds to increase and become west to southwest near the coast.

&&

.Fire Weather...
High dispersion indices are possible across the region both Sunday
and Monday afternoon. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather
concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
A dry pattern will persist through Monday. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for the rest of the week. Although
heavy rain is almost always possible during the summer months, we
expect any heavy rain to be very localized and unlikely to
significantly affect local river stages. All rivers are currently
well below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  99  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
Panama City   77  94  78  93  78 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        74  97  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
Albany        72  99  73  98  74 /  10  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      71 100  72 100  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
Cross City    72  96  72  95  74 /  10  30  20  30  30
Apalachicola  75  92  78  93  79 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>