Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The extensive mid to upper level cloud cover is currently hindering
convection this afternoon. Only a scattering of showers have
developed as of 18z moving rapidly from west to east. Will keep the
north to south (30-20%) PoP gradient until 06z. Lows will be around
70 inland areas and mid 70s along the coast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The period will be marked by a fairly large and intensifying
ridge thru Sat night. However, axis will be east of CWA allowing
for some instability. At surface, on Fri, high pressure ridge
across Gulf region with low over SC with cold front extending W
and E from front. Ridge to modestly strengthen on Sat. Thus
convection will be on the decrease and temps on the increase from
recent days. Expect 40-10% NW-SE POP gradient on Fri and 20% on
Sat. Dry air mixing down should suppress dew points. Expect High
temps from low 90s NW most locales to the middle 90s elsewhere,
with upper 90s attainable in warmer spots and rain/cloud-free
regions of the east. Apparent temperatures should peak around 100
degrees. Expect lows generally in the low 70s.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The period begins with elongated weak ridging centered over Nrn Gulf
dominating Srn stream Conus. On Monday, ridge shifts Nwd to over SE
region and remains in place until beginning to erode late Tues or
early Wed as a Nrn stream longwave trough moves Ewd into east
half of Conus and then deepens Swd. At surface, weak pressure
pattern as low just off SC coast shifts Swd to near NE FL on Mon
(per ECMWF) while GFS stalls it off FL/GA east coast while NE Gulf
high shifts Wwd to Srn LA. After this, forecast is even more
uncertain as NHC talks about this low intensifying off Coast with
a 20% chance of tropical development possible if it remains over
the water, less chance if it drifts S/SW. Even if there is no
tropical development, assocd rain, clouds can wreck havoc on
clouds and temps. So confidence not high days 5-7 but best
scenario shows low entering Gulf on Wed interacting with a front
and H5 trough for a wet pattern into Thurs. Will go with 20-30%
Sun, 30-50% on Mon and 40-60% Tues thru Thurs. Highs from low 90s
Coast and SE Big Bend to mid 90s elsewhere. Lows generally in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions should prevail through much of
the period. Becoming less confident that we will see much in the way
of TSTMS this afternoon so replaced VCTS with VCSH at all terminals.
Otherwise, a brief period (09Z and 13Z) of MVFR vsby is possible due
to fog but left out of TAFS. Winds will be light from the west or
southwest.

&&

.Marine...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected at least into early next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below bankfull stage. Since significant
rainfall is not expected in the next week, rivers should remain
below flood stage. All area rivers are below bankk full stage.
Since significant rainfall is not expected in the next week,
rivers should remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  95  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
Panama City   75  89  78  89  77 /  20  20  20  20  10
Dothan        71  93  72  97  72 /  30  30  20  20  10
Albany        71  94  72  96  72 /  30  20  20  20  20
Valdosta      69  96  70  96  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
Cross City    71  94  71  96  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  74  89  77  89  77 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON