Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

This afternoon/evening's convective coverage is dictated by 3
separate mid/upper level disturbances. The first one was responsible
for the light shower activity this morning west of the Apalachicola
and Chattahoochee Rivers, it moved east through the Tri-State region
and is responsible for the ongoing convection east of Albany and
Tallahassee. The second is generating more shower and thunderstorm
activity across southern Alabama and the far western Florida
panhandle. These storms will move into our Florida panhandle
counties and southeast Alabama shortly. These two features are
focused more in the middle levels and resulted from convection well
west of us last night. The final disturbance is more of a
traditional shortwave trough and is generating convection across
southern Mississippi and central Alabama. This evening, some storms
from this disturbance may clip our southeast Alabama and southwest
Georgia counties, but there is a bit more uncertainty regarding how
much convection we'll actually receive from this disturbance. Expect
another round of coastal showers and thunderstorms late tonight,
into tomorrow morning.

&&

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday night]...

Fairly complex fcst during the next couple of days as our CWA will
essentially be in the battleground region between a weakening upper
level trof to the north and a strengthening upper ridge to the
south. This will likely allow the sea breeze to be the primary
initiator of the afternoon and evening convection across the region,
and slight differences in the mean flow between 1000 and 700 mb
could have significant impacts on PoPs and QPF. At this time, it
appears that Wednesday will feature slightly greater chances for
showers and thunderstorms CWA wide as the mean flow will be strong
out of the W-SW, while on Thursday, the mean flow is expected to
become more northwesterly which will give areas in the FL Big Bend
and Panhandle higher rain chances. However, it will still be quite
moist across the board, so even GA and AL can expect 40% PoPs while
much of N FL remains in the 50s and 60s before more significant
drying occurs in the extended as the ridging wins out. Also, as the
ridging takes more of a foothold, afternoon high temps will be on
the rise, esp. over the interior, with a few upper 90s possible by
Thursday afternoon.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging and afternoon seabreeze convection will dominate
the extended range forecast. Afternoon highs will climb into the
middle to upper 90s each day.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR will prevail this afternoon outside of showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR ceilings will overspread most terminals
tonight, with some patchy MVFR fog possible as well. ECP may be
impacted by coastal storms early tomorrow morning.

&&

.Marine...

A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of any strong convection throughout the next
several days, as well as enhancements near the coast with the
afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals will average 1 to 2 inches through the next 7 days
with isolated higher amounts. With rivers below bank full stage,
this rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area
rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  95  72  96  73 /  20  50  30  50  30
Panama City   79  90  78  93  77 /  30  40  30  60  30
Dothan        71  94  72  94  71 /  40  50  30  40  30
Albany        70  95  71  95  72 /  40  40  20  40  20
Valdosta      72  96  71  97  71 /  20  50  30  40  30
Cross City    72  94  72  96  72 /  30  40  30  50  30
Apalachicola  77  89  78  90  77 /  30  30  20  40  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...WESTON