Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Tallahassee, FL

028 
WWUS52 KTAE 222016
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

FLC065-222026-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-140622T2030Z/
JEFFERSON FL-
416 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3054 8367 3054 8370 3052 8371 3052 8373
      3051 8374 3049 8373 3043 8373 3054 8399
      3055 8398 3056 8399 3067 8395 3066 8368
      3064 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 292DEG 12KT 3057 8378

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Expect a decent coverage of summer time pulse convection this
afternoon across the area. A few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out through this evening given expected SBCAPE values around
3000 j/kg with the best chance across the big bend where the most
destabilization is expected. Convection will begin to diminish after
sunset.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday's weather pattern will be quite similar to this afternoon,
with broad, weak troughing across the Southeast. At the surface,
the seabreeze fronts and a weak front across central Georgia and
Alabama will drive convection locally. Expect the highest PoP
coverage where convection from the seabreeze and synoptic front
merge across north-central Florida and south-central Georgia well
into the afternoon. On Tuesday, there may be a bit more synoptic
forcing across the entire Tri-State region as models indicate an
MCV exiting the northeast Gulf. This will likely enhance the
seabreeze fronts and yield a more widespread scattering of storms
away from the seabreezes. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to
middle 90s for most locations.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Much of the same for the extended range forecast as the local area
will likely remain sandwiched between an upper ridge and upper
trough, with only weak synoptic forcing. Most afternoons will be
dominated by seabreeze convection. Rain chances will remain near
average with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from
this afternoon through this evening with convection rapidly
diminishing after sunset. Winds will be light outside of
convection. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of
convection.

&&

.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next
several days under the influence of surface high pressure.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No red flag concerns are forecast through the upcoming work week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals for the next 5-7 days will range from 1 to 2 inches
across the area. With all rivers below bank full stage, this
rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  93  72  94  71 /  40  50  30  50  20
Panama City   77  88  75  87  76 /  40  30  20  40  20
Dothan        72  92  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  40  20
Albany        73  93  71  92  71 /  40  40  40  50  30
Valdosta      71  95  71  96  71 /  40  60  40  60  40
Cross City    73  91  71  91  71 /  40  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  76  87  74  87  76 /  40  30  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN