Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tallahassee, FL

819 
WWUS52 KTAE 211903
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
203 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ALC067-069-211915-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-140621T1915Z/
HOUSTON AL-HENRY AL-
203 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND NORTH CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BALKUM...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HEADLAND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GRANDBERRY CROSSROADS...HALEBURG...PEARCE...SIGMA AND PLEASANT PLAINS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3... OR YOU MAY CONTACT LAW
ENFORCEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8508 3142 8508 3140 8510 3135 8508
      3127 8514 3125 8526 3137 8525 3150 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 322DEG 11KT 3139 8521

$$

25-CAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Low-level convergence, forced by a weak surface trough, is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal
waters this morning. Expect this low-level convergence to shift
onshore during the afternoon as the seabreeze develops. The light
northwesterly 1000-700mb flow favors the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend for the highest PoPs. This is supported by most of the hi-res
guidance as well, so have bumped up the PoPs a little along and
south of I-10. As was the case on Friday, a few of the storms
could be strong, with small hail and strong winds being the
primary hazards.

With the northwest flow and lingering ridging aloft, temperatures
will continue to be hot today. current forecast of mid to upper
90s appears in good shape, so no changes planned.

&&

.Prev Discussion [541 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
An upper level trough with axis through the Lower Mississippi
Valley will persist at least through the short term period. Deep
layer moisture and a few impulses will accompany this feature.
Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis should remain just south of our
CWA keeping the boundary layer moist as well. This combination
along with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will bring
PoPs at or just above seasonal levels (40-60%) each afternoon. Max
temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 90s inland to
around 90 along the coast.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Lingering surface trough coupled with weak troughiness aloft will
keep climo or above rain chances in the forecast through early
next week. This will also push temperatures back down into the
lower 90s (near normal for late June). Guidance diverges by mid to
late week with the GFS bringing moisture northward from the deep
tropics. Recent performance of GFS in the tropics makes this a bit
dubious, especially without support from the ECMWF, so will show a
bit of a decrease in PoPs towards the end of the week, supported
by the ECMWF idea of an increase in upper ridging.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...VFR conditions should prevail at all
terminals for most of period. Some patchy fog possible thru 12Z Sat.
Scattered thunderstorms could redevelop regionwide from 18Z through
around 00z for now will insert VCTS at that time for all sites.
Brief periods of MVFR/IFR visibility and gusty winds are possible
with these storms. After 08z Sun...expect patchy light fog all
but ECP.

.Marine...
West to southwest winds are forecast to continue over the coastal
waters at least into the middle of next week as the subtropical
ridge axis remains south of the waters. Winds and seas may
increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, conditions
are expected to remain below headline criteria.

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels for the next several days with gradually increasing rain
chances for the latter half of the weekend and continuing into the
next work week.

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals for the next week will be around 1- 2 inches
across the area. With all rivers below bank full stage, this
rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area
rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  73  94  72  93 /  50  20  50  30  50
Panama City   90  78  90  75  90 /  40  20  40  30  40
Dothan        96  74  95  73  93 /  30  30  60  30  50
Albany        97  73  96  73  95 /  30  30  50  30  50
Valdosta      97  72  96  72  95 /  30  30  50  30  50
Cross City    93  73  93  72  92 /  50  20  40  30  40
Apalachicola  89  78  90  75  89 /  30  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN