Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The 13 UTC regional surface analysis showed a ridge from Southeast
FL through the FL Big Bend, a cold front approaching in MS, and an
outflow boundary along the Gulf Coast from Pensacola to LA. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed a broad long wave trough over
much of the eastern CONUS, with a short wave trough (and MCS) from
Southern AL to the LA Coast. There was still a lot of dry air in
the mid troposphere (especially east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers), but satellite trends and NWP
guidance suggests a moistening trend through the remainder of
today. Based on recent Convection Allowing Model runs (CAMs) and radar
trends, we think that the highest PoP through 18 UTC will be in
the FL Panhandle and Southeast AL as the convection just to our
west moves into that region. After 18 UTC this activity will
shift eastward, and we expect the rain over our western zones to
gradually diminish. Mid layer lapse rates are fairly steep and
forecast MLCAPE values are around 2500 J/KG, so a few updrafts
could support strong- marginally severe hail and/or damaging wind
gusts.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
until sunset, which will result in locally gusty winds and brief
periods of IFR vis/cigs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The weekend will feature a transition from an east coast trough to
weak ridging aloft. At the surface, a rather weak pressure pattern
will develop between the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic, and
high pressure over the Midwest and Northeast. This will result
in a return to a slightly more seasonal seabreeze pattern, though
there will likely be some added support from a weakening MCV
Saturday night into Sunday. Expect afternoon and overnight
temperatures to remain near seasonal averages.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Wet scenario to continue into extended period. A mid-level trough
will bring us higher than typical rain chances into next week.
Southerly flow will continue to supply plenty of warm moist air. A
series of low pressure systems with associated cold fronts will
pass through the region. Expect a lot a cloud cover. This will most
likely be off and on showers and thunderstorms and not a steady
rain. Therefore, despite the wet pattern flooding is not expected
at this time. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be
in the afternoon and evening. Rain and thunder will likely be more
scattered than our typical isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. This weather pattern will likely hold through the
end of next week.

.Marine...

Moderate southwesterly flow will weaken by this weekend, with low
winds and seas prevailing through mid-week next week. As always,
expect some wind enhancements in the seabreeze zone each
afternoon.

.Fire Weather...

No Red Flag conditions are expected through the period.

.Hydrology...

All area rivers remain below action stage as of this morning, with
most holding steady or having decreasing water levels. Impactful
rainfall is not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  70  89  71  90 /  50  30  40  30  50
Panama City   87  75  83  76  84 /  50  30  30  20  30
Dothan        89  69  88  70  89 /  40  30  30  20  40
Albany        91  68  87  69  90 /  40  30  30  20  40
Valdosta      89  70  90  70  92 /  40  30  50  30  50
Cross City    88  70  85  69  88 /  60  30  40  30  50
Apalachicola  87  75  86  75  87 /  40  30  30  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN