Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Tallahassee, FL

208 
WWUS52 KTAE 101929
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

GAC061-101939-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140610T1945Z/
CLAY GA-
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3196 8496 3195 8495 3193 8491 3192 8476
      3178 8491 3183 8509 3198 8503 3198 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 208DEG 11KT 3181 8500

$$

GAC239-243-101945-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140610T1945Z/
RANDOLPH GA-QUITMAN GA-
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR QUITMAN AND NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HATCHER...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WIRE
BRIDGE...MORRIS...CROSSROADS...SPRINGVALE STATION...UNION AND
SPRINGVALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8496 3195 8495 3193 8491 3192 8476
      3178 8491 3183 8509 3198 8503 3198 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 208DEG 11KT 3181 8500

$$

17-GOULD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
951 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The Ern upper ridge which dominated the local area yesterday
continues to shift E/NE of our CWA today in response to amplifying
upstream trough that was moving towards MS River Valley. Assocd
closed low to move slowly from MO into IL thru the day. Vigorous
shortwave rounding base of trough with several weaker impulses
waiting in line behind it all progged to move out ahead of main
trough axis next 12 to 24 hrs. At surface, looking Swd, ridge
across S/Cntrl Peninsula. Looking Nwd, low over MO with cold
front SSW across NW LA and Ern TX and warm front Ewd across Nrn
most TN Valley. Upstream radar and satellites show light showers
moving from Gulf to across Cntrl AL with stronger convection
closer to shortwave.

This places NE Gulf region between both mid/upper systems and in
warm sector between both lower level features. This will result in a
modest increase in SLY/SW low-upper level flow as reflected in
area model soundings. PWATs hover around 1.3-1.6 inches. Forcing will
be weak, but the best forcing for convection will be associated
with the approaching upper trough to the west and possibly as well
as the late arriving east coast seabreeze although that may hold
off until after 00Z. Until then, this will keep the best rain
chances along Wrn border of the forecast area (but still AOB 30%).
The onshore low/mid level flow should also keep temperatures down
a degree or two from Monday's highs, especially over the western
zones where the flow will be stronger. Expect highs from around 90
FL Panhandle to mid 90s Ern most GA counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...Expect VFR conditions for most of this
period. Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are possible at most
terminals this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots. After 08Z,
Expect MVFR CIGS especially at DHN/ABY with brief IFR possible
near sunrise.

|&&

.Prev Discussion [640 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Moisture will increase rapidly tonight with QG forcing for ascent
increasing ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave. PoPs
continue in the likely range for much of the forecast area on
Wednesday with convection moving into the western area late
tonight into Wednesday morning prior to sunrise, then spreading
across the remainder of the area during the day. Some of the CAM
guidance is starting to hint at locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Florida panhandle, generally from Bay county north
and westward (the usual suspects it seems). Amounts still do not
look excessive at this time, although it wouldn't be surprising to
see isolated locations in this area pick up a few inches. Most of
the area is expected to pick up around three quarters of an inch
to an inch. The increased cloud cover and convective coverage are
expected to keep high temperatures generally in the mid to upper
80s across the area. The upper shortwave is expected to be over
the forecast area on Thursday with the best chance of convection
across the eastern half. Highs will be just a few degrees warmer
on Thursday than Wednesday.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
A surface ridge will remain south of the area through the period
with generally southwest flow at the lower levels. An upper low
will cut off over the Mid Mississippi or Tennessee Valley over the
weekend before opening up and lifting northeastward. This feature
will enhance PoPs over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be near normal through the period.

.Marine...
Light to moderate onshore winds will continue across the waters
for the next several days. Seas will generally be 3 feet or less.

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns are expected through the next several days.

.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below flood stage. Some locally heavy rainfall
could occur across the Florida panhandle late tonight into
Wednesday, but amounts still do not look excessive at this time
with up to a few inches expected. For the end of the week into
the weekend we expect just typical summer diurnal convection so
river rises again will not be of concern.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  72  88  70  90 /  20  40  70  40  50
Panama City   87  72  85  72  87 /  20  60  70  40  30
Dothan        92  71  88  69  91 /  20  40  70  40  40
Albany        94  71  88  69  89 /  30  30  70  40  50
Valdosta      94  70  88  70  89 /  30  30  70  40  50
Cross City    91  70  88  69  87 /  20  20  70  40  50
Apalachicola  87  73  86  72  86 /  10  60  70  40  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD