Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Storms will continue to develop and increase in intensity this
afternoon. Modified KTAE sounding yields very high surface based
instability in excess of 3500 J/kg. SPC mesoanalysis shows this
number as high as 5000 J/kg. In addition to the sea breeze front,
residual outflow boundaries will serve as triggers for additional
convection. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for most of
the area through 10 pm ET. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats. Although we are missing some of the most recent
CAM runs, the most recently available data keep the upstream MCS
over Arkansas north of the region overnight.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Weak ridging and somewhat drier air will build into the region
by Monday from the SW and result in a break of the afternoon
thunderstorms that we've been seeing the past few days. Expect
Monday to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 90s, with a few
locations reaching the upper 90s. Heat indicies should generally
stay in the lower 100s as afternoon dewpoints should benefit from
the drier air mixing in, keeping these values in the mid to upper
60s.

A similar pattern for Tuesday is expected, though the ridging
will become less established late in the day as a mid level trough
begins to approach from the west. The drier air though should be
the primary limiting factor to afternoon convection. Temperatures
will still be warm in the mid 90s most sites.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The long term will be an active period for our region as the
longwave pattern features a strong Atlantic ridge to our east, and
and a strong ridge over Mexico. As is the case in this regime the
forecast area will be under deep layer south to southwesterly flow
on the east side of an upper level trough. Through the period, this
trough will slowly slide east through the area. The abundant
moisture, in addition to good instability and the seabreeze, will
lead to above average rainfall through at least Friday evening.
After Friday, the models begin to diverge with the GFS trying to dry
things out and the Euro keeping conditions near climatology for our
area. Decided to choose the Euro solution and this will keep our
POPs elevated through Sunday night.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] Scattered convection will continue to
develop this afternoon and any of the terminals could experience a
thunderstorm. MVFR conditions are expected with any convection,
although a brief period of IFR cannot be ruled out in heavier
showers. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during the pre-dawn
hours.

&&

.Marine...
Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the forecast period. The sea breeze on Monday
may be a bit stronger than usual with winds around 15 knots near
the coast.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected this week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Localized rainfall will continue to be possible with the storms
through this afternoon, especially those that remain near the sea
breeze boundary. While these individual storms may briefly
present a minor flood threat from high rainfall rates, widespread
flooding is not anticipated. Area rivers have shown some minor
rises with the recent rainfall, though all points are expected to
remain well below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  95  72  94  71 /  20  20  10  20  10
Panama City   75  90  75  89  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
Dothan        72  96  72  93  72 /  30  30  20  20  10
Albany        72  95  72  95  71 /  30  30  20  20  10
Valdosta      70  96  70  95  71 /  30  30  20  20  10
Cross City    71  94  70  92  70 /  20  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  74  88  74  85  73 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY