Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Convection will continue to generate on the sea breeze front and
other residual outflow boundaries this afternoon with a few strong
to severe storms possible. We are expected the locally generated
convection to die off more rapidly this evening. However, a few of
the models (including the 12Z local WRF) are showing a weakening
upstream MCS moving into our northwestern zones in the northwestern
flow aloft. There is no model consensus on this and we will keep
evening PoPs in the 20-30% range for now.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The region will remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge of
high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico. With west
northwest flow continuing through Sunday, expect good coverage of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Some of the hi-
res guidance shows a significant increase in storms after 21z
continuing into the early evening hours. This is certainly typical
of this flow regime, so have structured pops accordingly.

By Monday, the ridge shifts a little further eastward and builds
over the region. With model PWs dropping into the 1.4 to 1.6 inch
range on Monday afternoon, anticipate an overall drop in storm
coverage, especially across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southeast Alabama. Will show pops only in the 20 to 30 percent
range across the region. With fewer afternoon storms, expect
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer with highs generally in
the mid 90s, though it wouldn't be surprising to see a few upper
90 degree readings.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The long term period is expected to be fairly wet as we begin to
transition to an active pattern. Models are in fair agreement that
we will see a dry and warm beginning to the long term period with
below normal PWATs through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, an H3 trough
will begin to move southeast out of the Central Plains into our
forecast area Tuesday night.  With this trough, global models do
show below normal H5 temps and near normal PWATs for our region on
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, so some strong storms are not out
of the question and will need to be watched in the future. After
Thursday, the global models are in fair agreement that we will
continue into a relatively active summer-time pattern with showers
and thunderstorms forming each afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]
The prevailing forecast will remain VFR for most of this cycle
with some MVFR expected for a period during the morning hours on
Sunday. Another exception, of course will be in any convection.
Convective coverage will be fairly high today across the southern
half of the forecast area and any storms that impact area
terminals will likely result in MVFR, or even briefly IFR
conditions with 30-kt wind gusts typical. The main threat window
for convection will be this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
Light southwest to west winds will be in place throughout the
period. The afternoon sea breeze will provide some enhancement to
winds and seas near the coast each afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain well above critical thresholds, so red
flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain occurred Friday night
across Southern Georgia and into Southern Alabama. Though this has
caused some minor increase on the flashier creeks and streams, no
notable increases are expected on the larger rivers. Additional
rainfall this evening may cause some further localized rises, but
with no widespread rainfall expected, river flooding is not
anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  72  93  71 /  30  40  30  30  10
Panama City   75  89  74  89  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
Dothan        72  94  73  94  72 /  30  50  30  30  10
Albany        71  95  73  95  72 /  20  50  30  30  10
Valdosta      70  94  70  94  71 /  30  50  40  30  10
Cross City    71  93  70  90  71 /  20  30  30  30  10
Apalachicola  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...DOBBS/GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY