River Flood Warning 17, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Tue Mar 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With weak ridging now aloft and weak surface high pressure in place,
sinking air is finally beginning to erode the heavy clouds from this
morning. Despite the sun finally breaking through, between a cooler
airmass in place and having spent most of the day under heavy cloud
cover, a cool afternoon is still on tap with highs generally staying
in the 60s. Tonight, with high soil moisture from the recent rain
and high pressure in place with clearing skies and weak winds, some
fog is likely to develop tonight after midnight, dissipating a
little after sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the mid-upper 40s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Zonal flow aloft on Wednesday will amplify slightly Wednesday
night as a shortwave skims the Southeast. Expect a weak, dry cold
front to move through the Tri-State region Thursday and lay out
along the northern Gulf coast by Thursday evening. Temperatures
will remain seasonable through the period, with no rain expected.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The upper-level pattern will remain zonal into the weekend. Expect
high pressure to dominate with highs in the upper 70s and lows in
the 50s. By Sunday the first real threat of rain emerges as a
surface front extends from the NE CONUS down through our CWA.
Chances for rain will be best Sunday into Monday morning with even a
chance for isolated thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures on
the backside of the front will not be all that different from the
previous few days, approximately 10 degrees cooler for max and min
temps.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

MVFR cigs this afternoon will scatter out over the next couple of
hours, becoming VFR. Around 06Z, low cigs and vsbys will set in
across the area, with LIFR conditions at DHN, ABY, and VLD and
MVFR-IFR conditions to the south at TLH and ECP. Winds will remain
light...less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.Marine...

Winds are gradually tapering off as of this afternoon, with seas
expected to lag several hours behind. Beginning tomorrow, light
winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will dip into the 20s on Thursday, but will
remain above 28 percent in Florida and will not meet duration
criteria in Alabama. In Georgia, winds will be too low for red flag
conditions. By Friday, relative humidity values will be on the rise
again, with chances for rain increasing for the weekend and early
next week. No red flag conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...

Several local rivers are forecast to reach minor flood stage in the
next two days. The Sopchoppy River is currently in minor flood stage
and is expected to crest overnight. It is forecast to stay just
below moderate flood stage. Steady rises continue on the Aucilla,
Ochlockonee, and Withlachoochee Rivers as well. Only minor flood
stages should be reached on these rivers with the exception of the
Ochlockonee near Havana which is expected to reach moderate flood
stage.

With no significant rainfall expected for the rest of the week
(and likely through the weekend) most of the river points will
crest late this week or early this weekend. The exception to this
will be the Suwannee River, which will continue to rise well into
next week as routed flows from the Upper Suwannee and the
Withlacoochee progress downstream. It doesn't look like there's
enough water in the system to reach minor flood stage at any of
the points from Ellaville southward, but this is something that
will need to be monitored moving into next week.

For the latest hydrology information, please visit:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  77  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  69  54  73  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  75  51  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  75  50  74  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      47  75  48  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    49  77  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  68  52  71  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WALSH/HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT